Token Launches · resolved market
Yieldbasis FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8ade149e48ef74f5fae727ff67f97c2de23a9d8a7cbb6b9832d948e0e08a56e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,209$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 10,754$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 42c | 3,415$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 51c | 3,132$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,323$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.12 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed No | 45c | 2,068$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.33 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992a…5242backed Yes | 72c | 1,384$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…21c5backed Yes | 61c | 1,139$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…fe5abacked No | 36c | 1,062$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…c3b1backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…4325backed Yes | 70c | 653.41$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 52c | 638.32$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 41c | 575.26$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.91 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…cc50backed Yes | 40c | 568.68$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…9420backed No | 42c | 555.33$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…f578backed No | 53c | 530$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…9618backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked No | 79c | 496.9$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 428.01$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 49c | 423.36$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 9c | 403$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 400$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e971backed Yes | 57c | 378.27$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…feebbacked Yes | 57c | 348.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…ca34backed Yes | 56c | 291.64$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 65c | 270.94$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…fddbbacked No | 42c | 239.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 52c | 235.72$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 39c | 233$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.36 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 41c | 224.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 216.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…69b5backed Yes | 69c | 213.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…2dbcbacked Yes | 67c | 206.17$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 73c | 204.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…8a17backed Yes | 49c | 204.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…fad0backed Yes | 49c | 203.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75babacked Yes | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 30c | 193.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 192.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed No | 26c | 190.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…796ebacked No | 26c | 189.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 185.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…67f9backed Yes | 65c | 185.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbab3…4b1bbacked Yes | 41c | 178.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…5131backed Yes | 49c | 177$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…bd4dbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…787ebacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…19d1backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105d…7cb1backed No | 59c | 169.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 54c | 168.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…9910backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 54c | 152.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…ab8dbacked No | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…caaebacked No | 60c | 133.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…40debacked No | 39c | 125.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…9ddfbacked Yes | 58c | 118.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 35c | 117.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…c24ebacked Yes | 53c | 117$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4945…9756backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…2b6dbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x075b…9a8cbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 41c | 93.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…393fbacked Yes | 56c | 88.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 55c | 85.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 80.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 53c | 73.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…6631backed Yes | 69c | 72.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf78c…2484backed Yes | 57c | 63.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…2bf9backed Yes | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 55c | 59.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…3ffebacked Yes | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…c1f9backed Yes | 57c | 54.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d27…d1a9backed Yes | 51c | 53.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…896dbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…aeb7backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…9616backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…63b2backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 45c | 42.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…6effbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…0059backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…4102backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 65c | 38.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…44cfbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 39c | 31.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 52c | 31.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…2762backed Yes | 51c | 28.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…0762backed Yes | 51c | 28.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760a…ef8bbacked Yes | 51c | 27.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacc…b75ebacked Yes | 51c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…f08bbacked Yes | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbc…55efbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yieldbasis FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Yieldbasis FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.