Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d653b2987ba4a2ab6858d39aab560651a868b15f41322153caa28fe21dc29d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,549,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,475,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,549,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,080 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 6c | 221,102$12,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,444.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 9c | 176,868$16,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,793.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 151,053$10,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,230.79 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 9c | 76,705$7,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,186.44 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 57,333$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.17 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes | 0c | 51,300$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.57 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 50,208$4,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,347.02 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 15c | 46,334$6,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,840.7 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…cc43backed Yes | 3c | 45,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 6c | 44,626$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.2 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…1e6bbacked Yes | 6c | 44,354$2,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…cf3ebacked Yes | 2c | 43,291$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…b4f4backed Yes | 6c | 42,324$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.51 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x644a…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 39,063$5,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,468.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…8a71backed Yes | 1c | 38,400$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed Yes | 6c | 37,362$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,161.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 2c | 36,709$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.6 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ab…bcd9backed Yes | 9c | 36,101$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…ebe0backed Yes | 3c | 35,241$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…9a1ebacked Yes | 5c | 34,202$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 12c | 30,903$3,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…3abfbacked Yes | 10c | 30,303$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 9c | 27,468$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,422.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes | 10c | 26,414$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 7c | 25,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 10c | 23,405$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe95…e9e8backed Yes | 1c | 22,693$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…0633backed Yes | 28c | 21,856$6,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,055.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…ba78backed Yes | 6c | 21,707$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…25e9backed Yes | 9c | 21,256$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 3c | 20,532$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes | 23c | 19,754$4,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,591.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdc…ab84backed Yes | 17c | 19,273$3,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,289.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…c6b0backed Yes | 14c | 19,200$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 12c | 19,010$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…8356backed Yes | 13c | 18,683$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…6781backed Yes | 10c | 18,425$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 12c | 17,500$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.97 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b4…46acbacked Yes | 38c | 17,201$6,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,566 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…f394backed Yes | 23c | 17,200$3,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,956 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…95f3backed Yes | 2c | 17,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…409cbacked Yes | 10c | 15,807$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed Yes | 24c | 15,000$3,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,577.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…e832backed Yes | 41c | 14,933$6,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,077.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…291ebacked Yes | 3c | 14,813$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 13,936$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.81 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 13c | 13,913$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.32 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…e660backed No | 75c | 13,808$10,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 14c | 13,515$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.53 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…0a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 13,473$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…a72dbacked No | 58c | 13,406$7,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,590.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 5c | 13,382$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.88 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 12,291$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf231…1fb0backed Yes | 15c | 11,901$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 11,239$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.32 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…02ddbacked Yes | 1c | 10,815$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked No | 73c | 10,764$7,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,918.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 8c | 10,695$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.45 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…0a67backed No | 56c | 10,693$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,677.72 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +7.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,611$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 78c | 10,452$8,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.43 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…9318backed Yes | 6c | 10,033$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 6c | 10,014$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…bdffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…5404backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 6c | 9,685$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.11 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,598$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 9,072$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.4 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 13c | 8,857$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46c…bbbcbacked Yes | 10c | 8,679$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…1a02backed Yes | 3c | 8,438$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,216$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.58 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 11c | 8,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…d5b1backed Yes | 13c | 7,888$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…705dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,700$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 1c | 7,480$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…a12abacked Yes | 8c | 7,440$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…bd63backed No | 75c | 7,410$5,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2485…08c9backed Yes | 30c | 7,400$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 21c | 7,334$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 7,299$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.84 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 6c | 7,153$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…fc39backed Yes | 3c | 7,125$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…533fbacked Yes | 11c | 7,059$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…286fbacked No | 77c | 6,546$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…3475backed No | 77c | 6,300$4,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed Yes | 11c | 6,299$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…0654backed Yes | 10c | 6,072$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…450bbacked Yes | 17c | 6,000$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…9816backed No | 77c | 5,700$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 5,699$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.08 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…5c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,526$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.31 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a10dbacked Yes | 10c | 5,499$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…aa72backed Yes | 2c | 5,417$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d70…5044backed No | 56c | 5,399$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…1b12backed No | 77c | 5,200$4,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…2dafbacked Yes | 11c | 5,141$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 8c | 5,101$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b4b9backed No | 70c | 5,100$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.