TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,314,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,380,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,314,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f23…b36ebacked No1c72,181$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No5c69,686$3,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.32560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No3c56,615$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.02474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28c4…6024backed No3c54,476$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c32,246$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.666291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…9062backed No2c31,445$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e2…dfeabacked No3c30,319$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No2c30,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4902615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked No4c29,762$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.265016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No8c20,283$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.348815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9db…7984backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed No0c13,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e24…175dbacked No2c11,887$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c11,408$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.091,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed No3c10,660$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.57205%1 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed No3c9,249$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.11244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-88.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No3c8,480$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.77219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No6c8,414$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.06382.6%1 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-94.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb4e…47f0backed No1c8,175$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.47110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc8…feb7backed No2c7,757$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c5…4109backed No3c7,647$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.81190%0 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63e3…8876backed No5c7,475$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.981513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cb…3bbdbacked No7c7,452$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.67560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc9…e8ecbacked No4c7,184$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c7,027$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f3…e710backed No3c6,939$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.2770%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No4c6,302$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.544017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecd7…c614backed No6c6,089$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked No7c5,885$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.63944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+195.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed No3c5,885$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No4c5,811$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.832110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b5…5b9cbacked No7c5,463$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed No38c5,288$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe858…ef1cbacked Yes67c5,236$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d89…69b5backed Yes78c4,721$3,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c4,453$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0e…b89abacked No5c4,243$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a9…7175backed No10c3,894$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked No10c3,666$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ec…646dbacked No3c3,483$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No8c3,445$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1125731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71c2…735dbacked No2c3,352$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7a…06e4backed No7c3,247$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd40d…5652backed No6c3,236$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0182…7103backed No4c3,189$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6910…1779backed No5c3,173$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.841216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed No8c3,112$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No2c3,005$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.25147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-88.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed No5c3,000$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.56119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1180…b0d6backed No3c2,887$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7238…cbc1backed No5c2,827$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…7d57backed No4c2,730$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…4acdbacked No7c2,699$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4591…318bbacked No1c2,470$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c52…2c09backed No11c2,445$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No5c2,388$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No6c2,383$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.49323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes71c2,280$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.474837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…8eccbacked No4c2,250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54af…a9efbacked Yes72c2,224$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cef…af02backed No3c2,200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c2,183$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eae…ea4abacked No4c2,170$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No4c2,151$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.342638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0100…a303backed No4c2,104$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3880%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed No2c2,050$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+146.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.84812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No6c1,861$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.055538.2%21 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No5c1,842$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.385950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f79…0b32backed No1c1,802$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbf…3f35backed No6c1,725$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59cb…0722backed No4c1,691$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No24c1,614$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.364020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76d2…6bfcbacked No6c1,601$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.65911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-82.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c1,559$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9240712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a43…b7bdbacked No7c1,541$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No10c1,539$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No5c1,500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.951118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes62c1,453$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.431323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…fe1abacked No2c1,439$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed No2c1,387$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75260%0 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x807d…1e89backed No7c1,382$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No9c1,273$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0314250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33da…7270backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0419…606dbacked No4c1,239$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…1811backed No2c1,203$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No4c1,153$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.68712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes61c1,144$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.27540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked No4c1,139$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.57200%0 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a21…d26abacked No2c1,125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No9c1,104$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf31…4837backed No5c1,092$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5a…b95dbacked No4c1,076$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56e…dc0cbacked No9c1,044$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+312%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed No13c1,042$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No13c1,019$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6620148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No4c1,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.862657.7%15 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+26.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x807c…f1e3backed No3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba94…d855backed No6c1,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.