AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d5b528f85017327942614b32bc58d9128cc07836653ddbbf9063e33dcd8b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,629,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $813,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,629,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 0c | 193,609$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.04 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 0c | 126,725$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.25 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…b36ebacked Yes | 1c | 115,079$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 99,615$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 0c | 61,218$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5584…6e2abacked Yes | 0c | 54,107$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 52,450$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6910…1779backed Yes | 2c | 50,422$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.73 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 44,874$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 24,025$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 0c | 22,806$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…fe1abacked Yes | 0c | 16,520$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 0c | 16,250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0324…7427backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2da…2c53backed Yes | 0c | 14,205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd285…e466backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 9,820$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 9,660$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.53 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…e4e8backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93d…8339backed Yes | 0c | 6,433$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…6d89backed Yes | 0c | 6,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,274$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…0082backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…06e4backed Yes | 0c | 4,320$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…759cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,067$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,990$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…aadcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,902$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…279fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 1c | 3,509$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…fdb9backed Yes | 1c | 3,404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…567cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,194$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf3…7b7abacked Yes | 7c | 3,065$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 7c | 2,910$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,462$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,752$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,677$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 3c | 1,630$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,442$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 2c | 999.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 4c | 623.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…6cbebacked Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…cc4dbacked Yes | 4c | 405.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 9c | 354.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 10c | 314.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 15c | 283.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…c613backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.