Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46666ceb4c63814f38a8c83784ae10e1c2e1ef52e2db648372bd86dea521cf64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,147,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,920,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,147,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,392,231$10,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,583.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 384,981$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d7…0278backed Yes | 1c | 380,345$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 3c | 293,932$9,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,369.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…1710backed Yes | 0c | 290,668$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 204,833$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.65 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 9c | 182,294$16,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,313.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 178,515$12,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,158.21 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 172,270$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.7 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 163,908$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.82 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 7c | 141,080$10,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,479.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 6c | 140,610$8,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,487.16 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 11c | 117,271$12,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,824.69 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 1c | 113,885$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…1c31backed Yes | 0c | 102,741$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 3c | 101,675$3,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,505.7 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf81…2e35backed Yes | 1c | 92,726$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 0c | 88,671$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 11c | 87,631$9,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,787.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 81,951$6,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,267.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Yes | 2c | 76,184$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.73 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 8c | 70,578$5,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,948.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 64,840$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,534.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…606dbacked Yes | 1c | 57,475$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 10c | 52,333$5,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,048.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…38aabacked Yes | 0c | 51,943$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…c328backed Yes | 0c | 50,783$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b0…6182backed Yes | 9c | 45,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 7c | 44,563$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…9958backed Yes | 0c | 41,835$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 0c | 41,397$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed Yes | 1c | 41,227$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 10c | 40,781$3,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,993.22 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…f3babacked Yes | 0c | 40,621$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 1c | 39,170$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 9c | 38,268$3,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.88 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 38,163$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 10c | 37,829$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,836.73 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 34,619$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes | 0c | 31,840$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6099…107bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,617$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…d932backed Yes | 1c | 31,490$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…a540backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 9c | 29,652$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.19 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 6c | 29,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 11c | 27,983$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 3c | 27,680$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.38 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Yes | 8c | 27,500$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 1c | 27,251$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 5c | 27,000$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 6c | 26,900$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 26,845$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.49 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…992cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,579$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604c…07c1backed Yes | 10c | 25,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 8c | 24,200$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0860…911ebacked Yes | 1c | 22,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 11c | 21,743$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 23c | 21,643$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…790bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 11c | 21,222$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.43 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 21,041$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.71 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe090…02a3backed Yes | 0c | 20,949$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 10c | 20,430$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 0c | 20,233$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…4d32backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 7c | 18,950$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 7c | 18,763$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 6c | 18,500$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a1cfbacked Yes | 0c | 18,333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 17,050$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…9c0ebacked Yes | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…156bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Yes | 1c | 16,225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…7c43backed Yes | 3c | 16,083$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…dad9backed Yes | 16c | 15,666$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…3737backed Yes | 0c | 15,248$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3434…ce8dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 2c | 15,010$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 12c | 15,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.74 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…c2ddbacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…583ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,754$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +146%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 35c | 14,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,050 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…4247backed Yes | 1c | 13,857$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 3c | 13,333$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 1c | 13,081$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 6c | 13,000$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4af…5074backed Yes | 0c | 12,801$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…145bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7873…c7e1backed Yes | 0c | 12,080$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…7f7cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 14c | 12,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,867$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes | 13c | 11,538$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…a130backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 0c | 11,400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…4880backed Yes | 0c | 11,333$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6e…b6ddbacked Yes | 0c | 11,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2252…d4f5backed Yes | 1c | 11,171$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.