TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe20a…a130

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
146
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 71 out of 100 (+0.19 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 71 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT7343.8%32 W · 41 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$116.22
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$153.16
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$208.47
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$90.88
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$116.67
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2176.2%16 W · 5 L+8.6wins+0.41per pick35cpaid+105.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+99%+$426.79
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+253.9%+$317.4
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$150
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$750.11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+139.3%+$278.5
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$47.95
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$30.65
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+168.9%+$84.47
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+95%+$190.06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+203%+$30.45
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+132.8%+$19.92
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+116.4%+$23.27
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$33.14
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+248.4%+$74.51
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$42.5
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+279.4%+$69.85
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$401.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.