Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcacd424332319971356c757c025b45a4eb5643b919fb3bd2f84051afea599b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,792,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,048,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,792,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,695 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 748,369$10,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,007.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 466,885$344,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122,815.19 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 22c | 311,625$69,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,934.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 281,898$11,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,651.79 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 15c | 266,158$39,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,636.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed No | 77c | 250,586$193,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,675.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 71c | 245,947$174,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,794.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…cabbbacked Yes | 19c | 215,171$40,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 29c | 168,170$48,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,853.32 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 3c | 113,614$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570.34 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b9…bbcabacked Yes | 1c | 105,600$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 26c | 94,965$24,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,451.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 92,979$17,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,130.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 92,332$9,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,253.09 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 3c | 90,408$2,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 20c | 85,828$17,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,162.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed No | 67c | 84,625$56,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,971.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 4c | 82,550$3,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,251.51 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 18c | 75,504$13,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,258.17 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…34bfbacked Yes | 46c | 70,389$32,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,078.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 27c | 66,934$18,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,129.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 64,570$16,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,421.71 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 25c | 62,576$15,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,801.56 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 2c | 57,582$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…378dbacked Yes | 25c | 55,056$13,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,992 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 74c | 55,014$40,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,570.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 22c | 54,632$12,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,144.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 15c | 49,644$7,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,228.83 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…f18fbacked Yes | 38c | 48,602$18,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 47,511$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.25 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 80c | 45,657$36,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,149.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 41,363$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 23c | 41,232$9,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,585.09 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 42c | 40,427$17,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,100.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 18c | 38,915$7,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,117.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 75c | 37,142$27,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,353.37 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 61c | 35,657$21,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,023.38 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…2c89backed No | 77c | 34,583$26,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,940.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 30c | 34,203$10,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,332.79 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 71c | 34,079$24,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,804.08 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 32,873$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 17c | 30,955$5,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 70c | 30,651$21,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,329.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…cc49backed No | 68c | 29,594$19,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,611.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d3e7backed Yes | 1c | 29,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 26c | 28,581$7,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,361.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 47c | 28,358$13,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,132.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed No | 72c | 26,783$19,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,489.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 25c | 26,357$6,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,551.01 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 36c | 26,257$9,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,384.57 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 11c | 25,946$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,884.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 31c | 25,787$7,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,921.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 68c | 25,520$17,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,119.39 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…f11dbacked No | 72c | 25,123$18,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,034.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 28c | 24,652$6,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,888.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked No | 71c | 24,175$17,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,982.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 29c | 23,729$6,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,816.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 27c | 23,000$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,149.99 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 4c | 22,406$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 29c | 22,292$6,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,379.74 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 35c | 22,184$7,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,663.26 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 16c | 20,733$3,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 33c | 20,359$6,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,692.25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 34c | 19,962$6,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,806.44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 29c | 19,714$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,729.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 73c | 19,628$14,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,234.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 71c | 19,314$13,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,568.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 7c | 18,999$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 4c | 18,996$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.37 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…824ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,989$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed Yes | 29c | 18,952$5,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…5476backed Yes | 0c | 18,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…e1f2backed Yes | 41c | 17,397$7,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,093 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 12c | 16,781$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 30c | 16,500$4,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,964.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 73c | 16,286$11,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 36c | 16,055$5,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,758.86 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 6c | 15,190$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 14c | 15,171$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 17c | 15,082$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…f302backed No | 69c | 15,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 35c | 15,000$5,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,264.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 66c | 15,000$9,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 34c | 14,950$5,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125.86 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…8dd2backed No | 70c | 14,921$10,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,403.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…3220backed No | 78c | 14,840$11,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…3c9bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,587$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 29c | 14,441$4,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,213 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…746cbacked Yes | 58c | 13,703$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 25c | 13,545$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…a087backed Yes | 15c | 13,538$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 18c | 13,476$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 30c | 13,048$3,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,885.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…9670backed No | 77c | 12,987$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,987.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…459cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,915$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 13c | 12,850$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 37c | 12,523$4,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,633.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…ffbebacked Yes | 0c | 12,250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 25c | 12,206$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed No | 62c | 12,000$7,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,560.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.