TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,777,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,995,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,777,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes67c712,292$475,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475,137.6819239.1%75 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes8c257,539$20,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,528.74,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No32c251,340$81,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169,882.913450%17 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No33c229,999$75,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,099.2920140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c4…6f95backed No35c228,916$79,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149,256.8416040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe26c…88cfbacked No33c223,762$72,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,010.211225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No33c192,190$63,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,574.3912847.7%61 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd9…1ef0backed No35c169,998$59,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,498.453243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes67c149,254$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,0003426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes67c149,254$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,00011349.6%56 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No33c148,799$49,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,695.3810455.8%58 W · 46 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No33c120,000$39,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,4003557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Yes67c87,883$58,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,881.7616651.2%85 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes50c87,154$43,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,256.56,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed No35c80,378$27,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,491.0913353.4%71 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Yes66c57,994$38,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,355.6710962.4%68 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No33c54,093$17,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,241.247653.9%41 W · 35 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No34c52,000$17,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,319.7715949.1%78 W · 81 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed No78c50,845$39,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,368.412653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No34c50,488$17,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,322.089141.8%38 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes65c50,310$32,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,764.172,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked No33c48,687$16,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,657.113060%18 W · 12 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+59%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Yes0c48,268$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.276338.1%24 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked No34c48,226$16,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,829.311149.5%55 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No33c44,817$14,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,882.0831944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No28c37,257$10,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,753.9320545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Yes67c37,000$24,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,7901435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No33c31,593$10,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,117.3518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No33c31,106$10,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,752.4224146.9%113 W · 128 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed No34c31,014$10,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,469.293240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No33c30,942$10,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,730.913148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No33c30,765$10,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,612.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c1…d98bbacked Yes67c30,710$20,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,552.61955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes65c30,200$19,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,592.472,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes67c29,850$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,999.52157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes68c29,592$20,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,122.43580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a67…d370backed No34c29,371$9,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,384.983100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+268.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x494c…a2e3backed Yes70c28,561$19,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,992.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes72c24,880$17,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,817.224050%20 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No33c24,067$7,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,125.023759.5%22 W · 15 L+7.3wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Yes67c22,388$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0003855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e98…ed3dbacked Yes27c21,769$5,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,932.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No33c21,500$7,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,404.994052.5%21 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes67c21,260$14,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,24410848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No33c21,125$6,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,240.145939%23 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd9e…d576backed Yes66c21,001$13,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,910250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes65c20,127$13,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,171.9538233.2%127 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,6002544%11 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes67c20,000$13,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,40038649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked No34c19,741$6,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,028.971250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes67c17,206$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,60018948.7%92 W · 97 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked No33c16,892$5,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,317.572657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed No33c15,449$5,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,351.11675%12 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes2c15,423$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3810253.9%55 W · 47 L+14.1wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+58.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1727…680ebacked No33c15,199$5,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,183.644261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4789…994abacked Yes66c15,152$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Yes66c15,152$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0003650%18 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked No33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0503050%15 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed No33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.892642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes66c15,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899.863844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed No34c15,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,899.72356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Yes67c14,925$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe635…702abacked Yes67c14,755$9,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,885.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked No34c14,730$5,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,721.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Yes67c14,572$9,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,763.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Yes32c14,463$4,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,607.1410042%42 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No34c14,285$4,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,400.734141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed Yes69c14,250$9,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,779.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked No17c14,118$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,717.6511445.6%52 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes68c14,090$9,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,540.327955.9%156 W · 123 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes65c13,603$8,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,841.897951.9%41 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b70…6ccebacked Yes66c13,237$8,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,751.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No34c12,778$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,487.632437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x980d…7763backed Yes19c12,772$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.72119%4 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9e3…af4bbacked Yes80c12,518$9,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,966.220%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes67c12,500$8,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,37520646.1%95 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes65c11,308$7,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,383.5523350.2%117 W · 116 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba6f…fd5bbacked Yes68c11,272$7,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,639.411625%4 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Yes65c11,000$7,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,14019235.9%69 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc8backed Yes59c10,951$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No30c10,830$3,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,580.65757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+61.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes42c10,585$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.5113748.2%66 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes65c10,500$6,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,789.953928.2%11 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc181…6e97backed Yes67c10,470$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked No56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc4…6f26backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No33c10,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,699.953125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes39c9,869$3,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,838.9277336.4%281 W · 492 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe9…5e52backed No33c9,815$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,576.053145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Yes67c9,681$6,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,486.1911443.9%50 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes66c9,483$6,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,230.2525648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No33c9,000$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,029.9213348.9%65 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Yes67c8,800$5,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,895.9511942%50 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes48c8,709$4,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.991,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4773…2289backed Yes67c8,506$5,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No33c8,500$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,694.985337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc788…8545backed Yes66c8,428$5,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,562.642245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No33c8,155$2,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,463.823240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No34c8,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,319.9815944.7%71 W · 88 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.