Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0425c582c43e27c6d74af7a553c1ce68b32bacdc77f0b23d62cdfe8aa1da0556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $300,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 76c | 25,589$19,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,485 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 22c | 25,227$5,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,720.54 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 21,363$8,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,900.69 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 2c | 20,663$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 79c | 13,214$10,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,381 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 70c | 13,000$9,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,109.95 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 79c | 12,813$10,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 35c | 10,500$3,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,822.46 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 39c | 8,078$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132.68 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,860$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked Yes | 73c | 7,635$5,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,595 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…e058backed No | 29c | 6,784$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,783.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…a48fbacked Yes | 76c | 6,629$5,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,038.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…e774backed Yes | 70c | 6,629$4,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,630.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 23c | 5,970$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,574.79 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…2849backed No | 57c | 5,154$2,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 24c | 5,152$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.96 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 41c | 5,022$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.05 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 80c | 4,049$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4610backed No | 51c | 3,930$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 80c | 3,900$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.92 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 55c | 3,470$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.53 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 76c | 3,289$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…65c0backed No | 54c | 3,115$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,004$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 66c | 2,950$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.48 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 46c | 2,726$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.84 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 64c | 2,711$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.09 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…d14bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,390$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 74c | 2,374$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.65 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked No | 42c | 1,924$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 47c | 1,919$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.17 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 1,878$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.75 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…d1c4backed No | 61c | 1,810$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 60c | 1,786$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.91 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 29c | 1,756$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.19 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 36c | 1,726$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.96 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 2c | 1,652$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 24c | 1,563$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.63 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Yes | 71c | 1,550$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.93 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 57c | 1,460$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.3 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 74c | 1,397$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.38 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 67c | 1,295$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.96 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 40c | 1,200$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.9 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…414fbacked No | 64c | 1,200$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 53c | 1,150$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.71 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 20c | 1,144$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.04 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 35c | 1,108$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.39 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 46c | 1,105$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.13 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 66c | 1,066$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.1 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 64c | 1,060$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.57 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 34c | 1,031$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.68 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 48c | 986.3$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.61 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd312…7236backed No | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…40f1backed No | 53c | 902.18$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…b749backed No | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed No | 24c | 824$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…2f6cbacked Yes | 62c | 812.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…3656backed Yes | 78c | 811.11$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 800$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 75c | 800$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 25c | 733$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.58 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 24c | 700$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 40c | 663.47$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.36 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 650$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 25c | 639.73$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.92 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 31c | 632.61$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.86 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 20c | 620.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.4 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 615.05$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.48 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 75c | 606.85$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.09 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…362bbacked Yes | 51c | 601.33$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No | 55c | 600$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +12.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked No | 43c | 600$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…c5c3backed Yes | 76c | 592$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 56c | 577.28$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.56 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 66c | 540.13$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…d4bfbacked Yes | 5c | 531.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 55c | 515.2$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.49 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 46c | 500$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.33 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 59c | 499.79$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 29c | 493.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.74 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 66c | 473.35$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 471.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.3 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 76c | 459.77$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 35c | 454.57$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 65c | 446.09$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.01 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…fba3backed No | 25c | 444.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed No | 25c | 401.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.34 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 21c | 400$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.05 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 68c | 400$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…7a6bbacked Yes | 44c | 392$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…be4fbacked Yes | 48c | 392$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.