Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13419cc3e895bf60225558dadd022c11597814a40ea15b25f99539a111ca5592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $397,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 53c | 14,836$7,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,937.2 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 40c | 13,173$5,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,846.12 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 67c | 12,217$8,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,203.7 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 69c | 11,906$8,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,221.8 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,765$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 20c | 10,352$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,308.51 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked Yes | 70c | 10,007$6,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 44c | 9,693$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,414.33 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 38c | 9,673$3,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,037.52 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 64c | 8,691$5,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,549.93 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 26c | 8,585$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,323.75 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 73c | 8,406$6,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,139 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 50c | 6,875$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0d…4999backed Yes | 2c | 6,125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 5,293$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.49 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 79c | 5,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 36c | 4,997$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,192.65 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 80c | 4,866$3,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,885.43 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 19c | 4,736$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,837.59 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…ea9dbacked No | 21c | 4,289$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed No | 48c | 4,177$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.69 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 31c | 3,769$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.17 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 36c | 3,762$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.19 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 21c | 3,449$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…5980backed No | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 19c | 2,632$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.58 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 59c | 2,552$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.48 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 2,547$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.87 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 19c | 2,528$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.76 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 19c | 2,528$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.75 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 60c | 2,505$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.69 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…362bbacked Yes | 73c | 2,120$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…70dbbacked No | 34c | 2,026$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 51c | 1,959$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,949$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.75 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 30c | 1,780$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.06 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 15c | 1,736$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.91 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 71c | 1,717$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.67 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 15c | 1,688$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.07 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 20c | 1,626$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.28 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 52c | 1,607$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.85 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 44c | 1,590$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.83 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…8c0bbacked No | 31c | 1,588$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cc…be60backed Yes | 51c | 1,582$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 52c | 1,559$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.59 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 40c | 1,529$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.4 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 39c | 1,529$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.11 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 58c | 1,528$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.01 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 70c | 1,476$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 35c | 1,412$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.82 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,360$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…a48fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,339$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked No | 15c | 1,328$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.62 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked No | 32c | 1,262$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 27c | 1,236$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.03 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.99 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 33c | 1,193$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.36 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 16c | 1,190$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.1 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 38c | 1,188$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.93 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 36c | 1,113$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.79 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 18c | 1,055$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.28 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 26c | 1,007$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.16 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.98 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked No | 47c | 985$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.05 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 2c | 965$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed No | 34c | 918.2$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 34c | 909.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.47 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…1e0dbacked No | 43c | 892.41$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…b732backed No | 16c | 822.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 58c | 822$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.54 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…3656backed Yes | 77c | 800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 36c | 784.15$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.86 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…ae3fbacked No | 41c | 772.81$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.7 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed No | 42c | 765.42$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.93 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…f97abacked No | 46c | 750$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…986abacked No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…06fabacked No | 16c | 713.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +289.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 46c | 710.03$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.92 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 19c | 698.76$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.04 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…ab80backed No | 52c | 687.44$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.48 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 73c | 686.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 29c | 686.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.21 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed No | 15c | 676.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.27 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…22ffbacked No | 15c | 676.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +232.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 666.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 15c | 654.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.79 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 38c | 620$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 70c | 604.66$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.25 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 604.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd312…7236backed No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 58c | 586.56$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.85 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 34c | 565.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed No | 47c | 529.34$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 42c | 520$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed No | 29c | 514$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 26c | 507.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.19 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.