Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf0bbe0d1fd006aec6deef5482ca94b8ff0ceea73860bda0a337c4ce50d4448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $621,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $612,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $621,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked No | 11c | 24,592$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,946.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb27a…2b17backed No | 14c | 16,921$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,479.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +597%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 64c | 16,281$10,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,861.71 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 5c | 14,123$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,408.06 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 10c | 12,120$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,907.78 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 19c | 10,694$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 32c | 10,192$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,981.14 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,045$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked No | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600.47 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 26c | 9,947$2,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,358.9 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 9,142$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,482.24 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 9,023$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 61c | 8,172$4,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,219.79 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 9c | 7,900$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,170 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 2c | 6,794$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,280$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 1c | 5,460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…d004backed No | 12c | 4,479$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 25cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 44c | 4,318$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.83 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 40c | 4,156$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.64 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 6c | 3,051$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.42 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 16c | 3,023$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.94 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 25c | 2,971$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.44 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 60c | 2,873$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.44 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 63c | 2,825$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.82 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 12c | 2,700$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,651$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.05 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 8c | 2,609$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.33 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 39c | 2,532$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 15c | 2,512$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.44 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 10c | 2,510$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.05 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 49c | 2,457$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 6c | 2,300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 80c | 2,298$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.66 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 78c | 2,249$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.36 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 65c | 2,247$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.35 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 10c | 2,143$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.2 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 2,136$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.95 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No | 18c | 2,083$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.01 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 15c | 2,000$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 16c | 1,862$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.81 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 16c | 1,814$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.24 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 3c | 1,779$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked No | 22c | 1,722$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.73 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 21c | 1,666$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.07 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 1,663$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.56 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 62c | 1,656$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.35 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 24c | 1,644$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.83 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…bf59backed No | 12c | 1,536$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.51per pick | 12cpaid | +390.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,526$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe740…f9e3backed No | 34c | 1,490$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked No | 16c | 1,410$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.65 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…87dabacked No | 7c | 1,400$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 11cpaid | +1,178.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 70c | 1,361$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.55 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…6522backed Yes | 4c | 1,328$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 3cpaid | +669.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 74c | 1,309$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.69 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…778dbacked No | 12c | 1,159$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 10c | 1,111$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.89 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 9c | 1,033$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 1,022$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.54 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17e…98ecbacked Yes | 19c | 1,018$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 5c | 1,011$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.95 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…82f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…1debbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed No | 11c | 894.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.72 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 863.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…3e97backed No | 36c | 833.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 830.98$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 21c | 804.66$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…2865backed No | 37c | 791.95$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…a095backed No | 13c | 776.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.60per pick | 23cpaid | +426.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 78c | 769.44$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.98 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…eecbbacked No | 12c | 764.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.37per pick | 16cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x44da…27a2backed No | 26c | 763.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +217.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 34c | 730$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.52 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 3c | 722.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed No | 31c | 706.97$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +110%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 63c | 700$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 35c | 700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.8 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…88b1backed No | 3c | 644.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +885.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c285backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 73c | 619$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.87 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed No | 5c | 613.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.48 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes | 36c | 600$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +11.4wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed No | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.43 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +166%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 563.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.2 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 552.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 35c | 536$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 521.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 6c | 500$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 32c | 499.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.