Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c630cce90873c62161bdd6994b02f9c8e3203a858f578456b7bfae936cc04c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,241$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 3c | 14,040$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 13,188$5,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,382.65 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 65c | 5,135$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.04 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,396$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 28c | 4,254$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.64 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 60c | 4,130$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 32c | 4,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,335$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.12 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 58c | 3,242$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 63c | 3,151$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.92 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 2,843$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.74 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,683$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 71c | 2,652$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.88 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 50c | 2,046$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.73 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…f147backed No | 52c | 1,850$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,631$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked No | 50c | 1,615$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 39c | 1,451$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.82 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…a8adbacked Yes | 42c | 1,427$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,418$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.17 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,382$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 58c | 1,178$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.6 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 55c | 1,150$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.52 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed No | 30c | 1,010$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.34 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 74c | 933.01$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.41 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 42c | 923.57$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.67 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 44c | 918.19$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 38c | 867.89$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.97 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 43c | 797.5$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.25 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No | 56c | 769.69$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.52 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +12.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 42c | 757.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.38 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…362bbacked Yes | 52c | 728.63$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 46c | 705.2$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 71c | 703.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 42c | 669.25$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.34 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…2849backed No | 54c | 649.64$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 28c | 621.07$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.69 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 41c | 605.47$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 28c | 599.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 32c | 594.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…a48fbacked Yes | 64c | 588$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 581.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…7d09backed No | 68c | 504.48$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.29 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…65c0backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 51c | 486.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 467.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 8c | 467.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…2654backed Yes | 41c | 460.61$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 42c | 450.48$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.28 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 434.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…3656backed Yes | 74c | 425.79$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 42c | 417.53$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.55 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 41c | 407$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.87 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 399.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 60c | 369.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 29c | 359.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 43c | 353.3$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 43c | 330$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 61c | 329.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 80c | 327.77$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 64c | 325.3$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 71c | 296.83$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 57c | 271.7$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…669bbacked Yes | 43c | 271$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…c3eebacked Yes | 59c | 262.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.42 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 43c | 252.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 40c | 214.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 203$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +110%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…b76bbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8de9…6018backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…2bd0backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 40c | 198.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 42c | 196.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 44c | 196.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 51c | 195.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 189.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 185.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…cc3fbacked Yes | 58c | 172.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…89aebacked No | 44c | 162.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 53c | 161$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 65c | 154.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643a…522abacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…cd60backed No | 71c | 146.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed Yes | 62c | 132.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 34c | 115.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.