Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4023fae82e2914ce29c6abc62d4353a7ea1eeaca5dd73b27faeead9abbee790f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $367,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $385,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 12c | 26,344$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,182.98 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked No | 14c | 15,781$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,522.57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 25c | 14,258$3,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,635.72 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 80c | 11,305$9,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,038 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 29c | 8,245$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,828.29 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 8,228$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.61 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 25c | 7,872$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,932.82 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,829$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 24c | 7,590$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,776.31 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 66c | 7,577$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.3 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 42c | 7,500$3,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.43 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 6,979$5,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,540.71 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 37c | 4,696$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.85 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 55c | 4,629$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.77 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 48c | 3,956$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.1 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 69c | 3,777$2,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.89 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 19c | 3,458$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 20c | 3,221$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,018$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed No | 18c | 2,950$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.5 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 2,734$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.81 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,728$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,699$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.23 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 40c | 2,689$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.8 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 18c | 2,500$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.21 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 2,500$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.98 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 76c | 2,463$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.64 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 17c | 2,222$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.37 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 43c | 2,049$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.94 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 68c | 1,801$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.81 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked No | 65c | 1,748$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.59 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 34c | 1,680$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked No | 31c | 1,630$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.42 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…a48fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,524$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed No | 13c | 1,504$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.59 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…ac59backed No | 58c | 1,485$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 77c | 1,470$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 26c | 1,466$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.12 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…d7cebacked No | 29c | 1,457$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 57c | 1,408$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,275$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 30c | 1,269$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.95 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed No | 13c | 1,258$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.62 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27a…2b17backed No | 24c | 1,251$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +597%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed No | 16c | 1,235$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.11 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +166%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 37c | 1,218$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.79 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 36c | 1,097$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.09 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 14c | 1,051$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.28 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.79 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…6094backed No | 13c | 1,005$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +271.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…16efbacked No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.99 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…edb3backed No | 41c | 985.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 53c | 941.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.96 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…b749backed No | 39c | 903.85$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…ad1dbacked No | 27c | 886.62$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 34c | 867.52$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.65 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…43ccbacked No | 28c | 845.41$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +77%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d21…d15ebacked No | 25c | 820$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 45c | 806.43$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.02 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 3c | 786.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed No | 58c | 780$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 18c | 779.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.39 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 44c | 759.98$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.95 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 20c | 753.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.1 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 52c | 750.87$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.21 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 46c | 717.06$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.42 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 55c | 634.78$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.63 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5969…5bedbacked No | 16c | 630$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked Yes | 66c | 620$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.8 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…ec1abacked No | 37c | 600$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed No | 34c | 589.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 21c | 582.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.46 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 17c | 573.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.82 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 77c | 559.82$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.3 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 556.39$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 71c | 555$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 62c | 523$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.26 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 66c | 515.88$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…2849backed No | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 52c | 500.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.09 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked No | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…6eaebacked No | 18c | 498.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +104%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 22c | 498.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.02 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e2e1backed Yes | 75c | 486.67$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 76c | 462.11$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…e8e0backed No | 22c | 456.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 13c | 448$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.12 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccf…f180backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…c39abacked No | 51c | 440$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 45c | 430.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…a095backed No | 21c | 419.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.60per pick | 23cpaid | +426.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…f6e0backed No | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +77%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed No | 32c | 404.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.87 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +110%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed No | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.