TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketball

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hapoel Tel Avivof Hapoel Tel Aviv, Paris Basketball
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,260 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3d4…884ebacked Paris Basketball33c3,303$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.475642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Paris Basketball34c2,943$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.5236939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Paris Basketball30c1,717$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.2110451.9%54 W · 50 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv51c1,610$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv52c1,279$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7155…d866backed Paris Basketball48c1,279$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3009…19a9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv66c1,002$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv41c983$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Paris Basketball64c971$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Hapoel Tel Aviv51c950$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked Paris Basketball52c943$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv52c928$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Paris Basketball49c789$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked Paris Basketball37c774$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ae…57e8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv32c764$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Hapoel Tel Aviv63c734$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c7…be6fbacked Paris Basketball64c717$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c5…b4e1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv51c660$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv66c628.21$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.015050%25 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Paris Basketball49c610$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Paris Basketball49c567$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv54c541$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x591c…390dbacked Paris Basketball46c541$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c539$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c537$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv76c533$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Paris Basketball49c526$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed Paris Basketball49c517$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed Paris Basketball48c513$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Hapoel Tel Aviv62c512.18$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.63785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+168%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv18c482$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Hapoel Tel Aviv18c478$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Paris Basketball64c465$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed Paris Basketball37c429$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7039…2d8abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv63c429$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv36c407$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+136.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c405$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+137.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43f6…bb1ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv36c378$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c375$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+136.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Paris Basketball64c362$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed Paris Basketball64c351$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Paris Basketball64c345$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed Paris Basketball59c330$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv67c319.31$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.578247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Paris Basketball68c316$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed Paris Basketball59c310$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11111455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Hapoel Tel Aviv71c298.75$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.641560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2408…24b8backed Hapoel Tel Aviv67c298.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Paris Basketball68c267$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Hapoel Tel Aviv73c255.28$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.793053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b7…cef9backed Hapoel Tel Aviv52c250.19$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv66c227.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9910663.2%67 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed Paris Basketball64c226$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c221$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed Paris Basketball64c221$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Paris Basketball49c211$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a18…61a0backed Hapoel Tel Aviv70c204.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.852556%14 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x511a…9745backed Hapoel Tel Aviv67c201.76$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.583560%21 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+100.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6519…76cabacked Hapoel Tel Aviv54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924050%20 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv70c188.05$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.413775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c188$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Hapoel Tel Aviv52c185$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv68c182.4$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.375453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed Paris Basketball68c181$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Paris Basketball18c165.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Paris Basketball27c164.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv65c149.38$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4311635.3%41 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Hapoel Tel Aviv75c134.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.110634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Paris Basketball39c129.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed Paris Basketball33c123$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.142653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Hapoel Tel Aviv36c116$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…297bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv36c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Paris Basketball27c108.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.821915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3398…e348backed Hapoel Tel Aviv52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e54…7ff1backed Hapoel Tel Aviv55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed Paris Basketball24c83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4480…8c0ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv67c74.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.71650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1951…7542backed Hapoel Tel Aviv70c69.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211776.5%13 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…a130backed Hapoel Tel Aviv66c68.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Paris Basketball58c67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.61060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Hapoel Tel Aviv54c57.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.194841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hapoel Tel Aviv59c56.94$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3312268.9%84 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Hapoel Tel Aviv74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…2b8abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.48256.1%46 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Hapoel Tel Aviv40c34.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd3…0d61backed Hapoel Tel Aviv70c31.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.424165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b23…c9fdbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+31.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73af…b880backed Hapoel Tel Aviv50c26.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.012100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+152.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b82…1483backed Hapoel Tel Aviv58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv75c23.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.863565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9e1…f014backed Hapoel Tel Aviv72c22.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91c…edcdbacked Paris Basketball48c20.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Hapoel Tel Aviv76c20.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.882147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dc4…618bbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa892…0c2cbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.