Middle East · resolved market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfca16aab43bd662a6dc667c5c3605f6802c23de429ceb7a87db4add503f286a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,320,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,072,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,320,255 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	5c	164,575$7,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,799.58	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	10c	131,597$12,956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,956.03	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes	5c	60,230$2,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,949.81	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	6c	56,773$3,504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,504.4	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	10c	53,772$5,351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,350.87	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	5c	43,748$2,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,308.66	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	6c	40,830$2,492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,492.26	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes	8c	35,790$3,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,006.35	138	50.7%70 W · 68 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	10c	34,089$3,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,436.07	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes	8c	33,225$2,508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,508	89	37.1%33 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa91e…09e0backed Yes	2c	28,012$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.46	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes	14c	26,938$3,771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,771.24	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	7c	25,000$1,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,660	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes	2c	23,200$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.56	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	11c	23,059$2,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,641.66	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	0c	22,717$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.35	88	17%15 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	7c	22,252$1,641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,641.36	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes	4c	21,930$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807	105	28.6%30 W · 75 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes	3c	21,918$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.55	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4568…d9f6backed Yes	6c	20,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	9c	19,998$1,733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,733.16	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes	10c	18,054$1,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,725.42	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	10c	17,354$1,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,735.37	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	3c	16,500$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes	10c	16,152$1,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,625.34	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+44%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	7c	16,118$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,098.15	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes	4c	15,790$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.27	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	4c	15,597$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.11	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes	14c	15,203$2,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106.94	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes	3c	14,901$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.24	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes	3c	14,430$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.79	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Yes	1c	13,625$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-39%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5138…4fe5backed Yes	9c	12,911$1,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,162	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed Yes	10c	12,154$1,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,235.85	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…dc59backed Yes	4c	12,063$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes	8c	12,024$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	7c	11,114$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.8	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	6c	10,789$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.22	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes	3c	10,675$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.15	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	9c	10,418$896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.17	312	41.7%130 W · 182 L	+15.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8844…ff13backed Yes	10c	10,404$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes	10c	10,328$1,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,052	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes	1c	10,125$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.71	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes	10c	10,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	136	50%68 W · 68 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96f9…1d08backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	+795.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	4c	9,209$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.79	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4789…994abacked Yes	9c	9,099$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes	2c	9,000$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	103	27.2%28 W · 75 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	4c	8,474$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes	9c	8,100$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes	4c	7,439$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.55	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x648a…c789backed Yes	2c	7,211$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes	6c	6,869$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.62	115	27%31 W · 84 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c15…944dbacked Yes	6c	6,785$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.76	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+812.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes	5c	6,700$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.9	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	6,519$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	274	2.9%8 W · 266 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes	10c	6,357$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.73	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd15b…cf6dbacked Yes	33c	6,074$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes	5c	5,984$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.39	114	6.1%7 W · 107 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes	3c	5,900$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	142	27.5%39 W · 103 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	9c	5,723$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.53	241	49.4%119 W · 122 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	8c	5,555$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.3	207	36.2%75 W · 132 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes	13c	5,501$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	4c	5,500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	358	8.7%31 W · 327 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes	4c	5,404$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked Yes	10c	5,050$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.85	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb3…4268backed Yes	1c	5,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	74	21.6%16 W · 58 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	7c	4,641$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.82	242	24.4%59 W · 183 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	5c	4,500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	203	36.9%75 W · 128 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes	6c	4,221$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.42	101	32.7%33 W · 68 L	+10.6wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	11c	4,100$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes	7c	4,022$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.33	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc741…87bfbacked Yes	13c	3,829$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.3	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Yes	7c	3,588$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.16	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf464…6983backed Yes	8c	3,510$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa282…575cbacked Yes	12c	3,462$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+390.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes	5c	3,121$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.67	126	29.4%37 W · 89 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	10c	3,096$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.65	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes	7c	3,032$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.79	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	8c	3,010$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.8	135	44.4%60 W · 75 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes	3c	3,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	81	25.9%21 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes	5c	2,810$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.32	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes	6c	2,788$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	72	29.2%21 W · 51 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	10c	2,625$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	473	34%161 W · 312 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+42%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	6c	2,359$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.26	204	38.7%79 W · 125 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes	4c	2,341$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.54	112	22.3%25 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes	10c	2,264$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes	4c	2,247$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.34	107	37.4%40 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f13…3a2dbacked Yes	9c	2,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	13c	2,222$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.86	178	39.9%71 W · 107 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b8…4439backed Yes	10c	2,121$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	80c	2,064$1,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.34	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	10c	2,055$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.5	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce51…8d4cbacked Yes	10c	2,017$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes	10c	2,015$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	50	34%17 W · 33 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd086…7bc1backed Yes	10c	2,015$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebb4…408ebacked Yes	10c	2,013$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	486	30.5%148 W · 338 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event