Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92f5fa7a45fd635632fcf60b1606c4a3b2aad2a89b0538dceac1ff4b05ec6278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 67c | 10,006$6,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.94 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 46c | 10,002$4,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640.21 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 38c | 6,887$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.72 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 6,792$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.68 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 43c | 4,433$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.38 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 37c | 3,870$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.17 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 70c | 3,578$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.37 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 7c | 3,422$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 11c | 3,314$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.73 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 46c | 3,221$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.28 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 50c | 3,218$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.01 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 43cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 46c | 3,042$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.38 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 58c | 2,926$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.13 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 20c | 2,716$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,705$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.05 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 63c | 2,648$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.15 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 2,600$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 60c | 2,372$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…0782backed No | 44c | 2,279$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 43c | 2,138$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.2 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 54c | 2,090$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…5118backed No | 31c | 2,001$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 42c | 1,593$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.41 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 33c | 1,513$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.6 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed No | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 42c | 1,484$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.58 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 31c | 1,366$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.1 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 55c | 1,285$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 1,155$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.13 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,151$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.97 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 44c | 1,133$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 1,130$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.85 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 56c | 1,129$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.5 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 53c | 1,100$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…5acbbacked No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 62c | 999$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.95 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 56c | 916$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.12 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 45c | 851.56$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.91 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 63c | 800$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…50a5backed No | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked No | 44c | 735.97$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.85 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 57c | 717$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.31 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed No | 31c | 709.95$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 33c | 704.81$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.17 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 44c | 694.33$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 43c | 656$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.08 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a2…8cffbacked No | 53c | 634.33$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 67c | 611.46$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.88 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca7d…f1f7backed Yes | 54c | 592.78$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 40c | 590.06$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.08 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 50c | 576.21$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.08 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 48c | 560$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.33 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 59c | 539.87$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 55c | 509.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 502$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…a067backed No | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked Yes | 69c | 497.1$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 26c | 496.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 45c | 482.7$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…e966backed No | 44c | 452.21$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…3230backed No | 48c | 443.8$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 57c | 430.11$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06bb…9c66backed No | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 63c | 420$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 24c | 412.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 40c | 387.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 75c | 356.84$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 56c | 355.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.36 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 25c | 346.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 60c | 309.01$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 49c | 266.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 21c | 258.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…c312backed No | 42c | 257.48$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 253.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 41c | 240.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 231.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 37c | 228.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 39c | 222$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 57c | 215.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…3689backed No | 59c | 215.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked No | 42c | 213.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 58c | 211.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 49c | 204.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 48c | 202$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…36cabacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…9c60backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.