TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06bb…9c66

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.37
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+495.2%+$74.88
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+395.9%+$134.12
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$23.12
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.8
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$38.13
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$46.4
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick59cpaid-37.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+323.9%+$99.32
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,212.93
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$698Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$197.76
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$158.31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$22.49
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$4.45
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$18.19
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$44.86
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$50.3
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.06
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.85
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.19
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.