AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f35a6bc5b2c573b26b74f039d67c31e7a8f920cf738a4c0474e1b934e8be958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 36c | 2,327$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.25 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 2c | 2,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 1,502$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…d7e9backed Yes | 45c | 1,450$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.61 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 67c | 1,020$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 44c | 867.33$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.87 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 58c | 690.98$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.28 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 48c | 560$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…3847backed Yes | 33c | 537$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 61c | 524.5$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.22 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 6c | 433.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 430.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 56c | 418.55$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.84 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked No | 73c | 412.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked No | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…19ccbacked No | 44c | 379.06$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 53c | 376.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 351.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 77c | 286.18$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 31c | 277$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 62c | 219.28$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 29c | 194.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc6…cba3backed No | 53c | 188.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0e…1696backed No | 61c | 172.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 140.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 33c | 135.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 129.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 124.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 64c | 121.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 119.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 24c | 109.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 59c | 108.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…58e2backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…b5a1backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 98.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…a390backed No | 55c | 93.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 31c | 89.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 30c | 88.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…a6c0backed Yes | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…acdebacked No | 13c | 82.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed Yes | 48c | 78.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 34c | 66.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…bd0dbacked No | 74c | 54.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 50.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…abf8backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked No | 32c | 46.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 47c | 39.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4859backed No | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 63c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…1de1backed No | 63c | 24.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e97…b933backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8eed…0eacbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…0ee1backed No | 62c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.