AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ba41dd56ab40b1ac5c8af96a1fdcdbaf05d1a51c6bc33b590528cee651c00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d77…9b9dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…3847backed Yes | 36c | 4,984$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,213.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 18c | 4,720$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.03 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 33c | 2,926$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.15 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 3c | 1,976$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed No | 65c | 1,959$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 60c | 1,720$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.43 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 76c | 1,372$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.09 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…bb2abacked No | 79c | 1,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 58c | 1,200$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 1,011$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 45c | 981.62$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…19ccbacked No | 60c | 973.42$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 841.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 59c | 800.1$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 749.38$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.63 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 743.49$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.2 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 59c | 622.65$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.77 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…89cebacked No | 50c | 522.96$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 68c | 507$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 32c | 507$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed No | 57c | 447.7$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 55c | 436.46$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 30c | 430.93$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 12c | 382.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 49c | 376.6$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.61 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 45c | 371.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.41 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 6c | 354.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…f655backed No | 57c | 348.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…1b86backed Yes | 31c | 320$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 44c | 300.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 43c | 297.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd900…a592backed Yes | 73c | 274.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 264.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 34c | 260.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 39c | 236.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 42c | 221.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 52c | 205.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed Yes | 43c | 186.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 48c | 186.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 71c | 172.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 154.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 59c | 142.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa82…0543backed No | 73c | 136.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…8404backed No | 46c | 132.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 120.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 15c | 119.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 34c | 112.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 68c | 110.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 104.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…a390backed Yes | 28c | 103.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…b07ebacked No | 58c | 100.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9f3bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…b5a1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 65c | 72.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 42c | 56.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 45.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…3741backed No | 64c | 40.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 60c | 37.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 53c | 30.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e97…b933backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eed…0eacbacked Yes | 45c | 26.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 24.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 57c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 57c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 50c | 20.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 17.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.