AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde3d7284683cab868b904d0dad13dc827362ce4fc837779e250604fe2477d1b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 3c | 6,891$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 24c | 3,419$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.51 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 2c | 2,448$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 2,260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 73c | 2,260$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.23 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,866$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,799$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 23c | 1,347$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 4c | 1,307$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 70c | 1,169$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.28 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 2c | 892$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 698.21$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…c55fbacked No | 31c | 623.96$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 529.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc6…cba3backed No | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 15c | 351.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 346.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 18c | 311.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 14c | 282.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 245$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 24c | 211.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 67c | 210$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c4…fa64backed No | 39c | 204.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 195$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 7c | 189$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 14c | 185$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 73c | 184.93$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 72c | 180.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 66c | 177$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 152.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 14c | 146.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked Yes | 64c | 124.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…8059backed No | 23c | 119.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 19c | 102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d1…c4b9backed No | 21c | 94.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes | 75c | 93.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 17c | 90.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…63b9backed Yes | 76c | 74.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac09…83ebbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…b9bbbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 25c | 57.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 79c | 53.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…c546backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked No | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked No | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 63c | 38.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 71c | 35.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…2313backed Yes | 78c | 33.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…9172backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…1216backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 66c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b1…bc53backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.