AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bda13ab3b360afcdb8e400ef367613ef584af9b9c5cd483691fd730420705ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 0c | 29,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 29c | 15,432$4,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,460.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…d7e9backed Yes | 42c | 12,291$5,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,156.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 8,740$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.94 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 52c | 8,124$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,903.23 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 0c | 8,088$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 49c | 7,458$3,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,803.77 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 73c | 7,338$5,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…a30abacked No | 28c | 7,252$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 76c | 6,691$5,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.19 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…3847backed Yes | 40c | 6,403$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,865.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 42c | 6,130$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.73 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 79c | 5,550$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.25 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 45c | 5,303$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…cb46backed No | 1c | 5,250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0838backed No | 15c | 5,119$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 38c | 4,403$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 36c | 4,380$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.01 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 64c | 4,229$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.16 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed No | 55c | 4,082$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…1a84backed No | 26c | 3,718$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…464cbacked No | 0c | 3,508$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed No | 1c | 3,180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 69c | 3,162$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…3753backed No | 1c | 3,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 60c | 2,972$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.77 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 62c | 2,901$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.45 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 74c | 2,841$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.51 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…5637backed No | 1c | 2,818$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 20c | 2,800$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 30c | 2,618$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…5cafbacked No | 14c | 2,564$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 59c | 2,484$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.65 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 32c | 2,418$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 38c | 2,227$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 64c | 2,109$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…19b8backed Yes | 71c | 2,073$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 56c | 2,047$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.43 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 35c | 2,013$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 1,854$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.57 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 74c | 1,779$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.47 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…85fcbacked No | 40c | 1,745$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 1,695$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.46 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,664$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.39 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 73c | 1,653$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.27 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 64c | 1,600$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…0969backed No | 14c | 1,451$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 1,406$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.27 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 50c | 1,387$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…b90abacked No | 34c | 1,340$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed No | 16c | 1,218$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 19c | 1,194$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.17 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 37c | 1,166$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed Yes | 41c | 1,060$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 20c | 1,039$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 1,032$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.03 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 32c | 1,018$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.65 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…b0edbacked No | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33c…ece4backed No | 71c | 999.98$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…336cbacked No | 40c | 983.62$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 959.52$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.22 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 73c | 917.05$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…17e8backed No | 38c | 908.58$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…19ccbacked No | 11c | 907.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 59c | 899.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…73e8backed No | 45c | 898.32$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 73c | 894.14$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.91 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed No | 29c | 810.9$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…9336backed Yes | 72c | 803.15$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 78c | 802.52$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 39c | 771.14$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed No | 66c | 760.01$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 57c | 756$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 69c | 738.39$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 41c | 727.55$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 20c | 705.39$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 64c | 675.6$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.07 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb458…002cbacked No | 8c | 670$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed No | 17c | 620.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…b488backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…8621backed Yes | 53c | 566.06$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 60c | 559.78$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…0fb9backed Yes | 44c | 550$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes | 49c | 534.23$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.67 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 53c | 533.33$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.33 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f7…6d1bbacked Yes | 49c | 530.11$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…0318backed Yes | 54c | 525.44$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.66 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 74c | 519.97$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…e9c7backed No | 3c | 519.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 45c | 510.77$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked No | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…99c7backed Yes | 65c | 477.63$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 34c | 476.06$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 72c | 472.33$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 65c | 467.49$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…1a08backed No | 48c | 460.28$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4576…7b22backed Yes | 79c | 451.38$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.