AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96b9c76b634d6ad813ed97ae3ad1b121b59691eeb0e9ac83a3a5911701cad6be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 12c | 29,569$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.63 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,201$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,568$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 1,564$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 8c | 1,399$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 1,373$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 1,359$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…df24backed No | 8c | 1,260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 11c | 918$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d880backed No | 6c | 818.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 16c | 756.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 13c | 683.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 16c | 643.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 605.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 16c | 600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 13c | 577$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 9c | 561$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 12c | 499.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 478.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 471.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 18c | 416$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 14c | 373.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked No | 5c | 362.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 4c | 349$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 57c | 324.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 11c | 284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked No | 16c | 272.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 14c | 269.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 8c | 263.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…fba0backed No | 15c | 253.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…a1b8backed No | 26c | 234.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 9c | 228.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 10c | 220.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…491fbacked No | 14c | 213.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d6…6c59backed No | 9c | 211.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…e85ebacked No | 7c | 204.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 8c | 204.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…acdebacked No | 6c | 196.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 15c | 190.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 10c | 188.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d1…c4b9backed No | 12c | 165.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 132.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 17c | 132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 111.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 14c | 105.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…61f9backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…1b1fbacked No | 19c | 98.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 90.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 72c | 83.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…b9bbbacked No | 17c | 79.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 15c | 69.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 43c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 77c | 24.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.