TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x27fa…d880

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 172.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$76.24
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$230
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5)backed Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.86
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$485
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-1.5)backed Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)backed Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.91
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$570
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.81
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)backed Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.26
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked California Baptist Lancers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$424.95
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$561
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$142
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$620
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$10.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$94.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.