Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x947ea419ce52c924f3c55a8c134fabd683930621845eab8e9654cdbbd2389104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $622,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $695,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $622,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 22c | 16,826$3,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,626.83 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 14c | 15,001$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.61 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…2bcabacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…f95cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 34c | 7,064$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,686.8 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 43c | 6,576$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.6 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…3e61backed No | 1c | 5,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 19c | 5,085$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,110.11 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 63c | 4,789$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.49 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 22c | 4,711$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,697.8 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 62c | 4,500$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.5 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed No | 2c | 4,478$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,288$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 54c | 4,148$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.82 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 69c | 4,083$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.39 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 72c | 3,706$2,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.17 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 20c | 3,495$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.6 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 3,471$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 25c | 3,410$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.88 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 57c | 3,126$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.28 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 53c | 2,847$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.02 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 26c | 2,606$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.45 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 65c | 2,406$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.44 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 51c | 2,372$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.37 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 41c | 2,300$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.57 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 21c | 2,276$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.35 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 1c | 2,240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked No | 9c | 2,189$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.13 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 62c | 2,070$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.39 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 44c | 2,048$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.79 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed No | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,944$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.11 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…76f9backed No | 5c | 1,940$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 37c | 1,938$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.65 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed No | 23c | 1,766$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.34 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,764$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.46 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…7246backed No | 25c | 1,723$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 29c | 1,624$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.64 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,618$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.68 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 33c | 1,604$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.41 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 18c | 1,553$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.22 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 1c | 1,506$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 33c | 1,498$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.65 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 26c | 1,450$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.82 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked No | 10c | 1,448$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 39c | 1,414$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.03 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 21c | 1,406$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.26 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,400$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.37 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 18c | 1,387$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 53c | 1,364$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.11 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 1,325$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.25 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 7c | 1,300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 4c | 1,300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,291$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.92 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 1,244$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.13 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…f0dabacked Yes | 32c | 1,141$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 34c | 1,130$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.2 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 80c | 1,128$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.04 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 16c | 1,100$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 21c | 1,035$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.98 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.98 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes | 78c | 949.78$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.01 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 12c | 905.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.91 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 70c | 901.93$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.48 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 17c | 897.46$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.12 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…00bfbacked No | 60c | 850.82$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.36 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed No | 13c | 849.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 26c | 836.33$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.62 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 34c | 818.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.03 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 20c | 815$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 800.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.35 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 22c | 800$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…f31dbacked Yes | 71c | 799.97$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked No | 6c | 787.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…c6d1backed Yes | 64c | 782.6$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 770$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.18 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 26c | 762.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.74 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed No | 21c | 761.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…f712backed Yes | 69c | 750$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 44c | 749.31$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.43 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…5715backed Yes | 75c | 743.41$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 57c | 720$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.23 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 13c | 717.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.86 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 26c | 710.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 44c | 707.31$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked No | 60c | 700$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090d…8265backed Yes | 56c | 685.95$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 11c | 670$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.3 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…5aa4backed No | 25c | 645.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 29c | 620.69$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.69 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 27c | 620.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.71 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 44c | 606.01$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.01 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…8bb5backed Yes | 78c | 595.61$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked No | 14c | 568.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f74ebacked Yes | 70c | 563.37$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…fdebbacked Yes | 36c | 562.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.22 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed No | 22c | 555.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.