Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4877a70f77bd4c069e5452fcaf3e0b1f4a689e10976b739676864f6849b2607a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $710,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $710,547 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 68,249$2,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.09 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 0c | 66,664$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 19,718$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.11 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 13,938$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.59 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 6c | 10,847$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.22 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 5c | 8,954$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.89 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 4c | 8,834$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.8 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 3c | 8,154$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 8,071$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.55 | 83 | 12%10 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 7,855$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 2c | 6,738$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.26 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,299$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.87 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,265$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 6,039$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 3c | 5,646$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.53 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…f02cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,585$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 3c | 5,552$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,486$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,067$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.04 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…64f3backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 4,701$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.25 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 4,674$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.72 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 17c | 4,670$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…5715backed Yes | 6c | 4,434$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 1c | 4,408$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 4,275$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.85 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,255$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…9213backed Yes | 2c | 4,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes | 4c | 4,230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 4,009$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…89e2backed Yes | 6c | 3,943$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,919$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 3c | 3,909$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 3,850$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090d…8265backed Yes | 7c | 3,756$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 3,750$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,722$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.48 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,440$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 3,280$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 3,243$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb104…10c9backed Yes | 5c | 3,159$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 4c | 3,124$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 4c | 3,100$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,092$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,032$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 6c | 3,028$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.87 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 3c | 3,021$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…b3ddbacked Yes | 5c | 3,011$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 13c | 3,001$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 6c | 2,832$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…578ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,785$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,674$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 1c | 2,633$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,490$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…6a54backed Yes | 6c | 2,407$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6552…b256backed Yes | 3c | 2,110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,071$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 4c | 2,051$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…245dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,028$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 3c | 1,961$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…fe7ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,945$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,923$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,862$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,848$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0389backed Yes | 3c | 1,808$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…df80backed Yes | 6c | 1,794$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,744$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 1,733$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,722$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,704$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…78aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,680$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 2c | 1,660$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…6256backed Yes | 1c | 1,610$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,588$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa730…bd15backed Yes | 9c | 1,559$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,538$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 1c | 1,520$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…a37fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,492$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…a5d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,491$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +278.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 7c | 1,444$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,390$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,385$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…c13abacked Yes | 7c | 1,342$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 5c | 1,330$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…2822backed Yes | 9c | 1,330$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes | 6c | 1,305$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,299$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e44…322cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,299$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 1,296$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…f352backed Yes | 9c | 1,295$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,272$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…7bf6backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.