Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267333722f8c6080f964f6041fdd738cdaaedff529194e0434e47593db4f5ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,854 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 23,312$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.72 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 1c | 11,208$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 1c | 10,915$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 10,110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,164$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…037ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,769$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 3,854$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…6900backed Yes | 4c | 3,499$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.59 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,568$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes | 10c | 2,436$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 2,435$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.74 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 2,293$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 4c | 2,083$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…33a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,078$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,755$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,450$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,175$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 83 | 12%10 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 3c | 1,150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,050$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 999.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…7351backed Yes | 11c | 887.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 4c | 773.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 604.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 555.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 7c | 542.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ea…23dfbacked Yes | 13c | 396.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…d2d6backed Yes | 8c | 339.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7f…37abbacked Yes | 4c | 305.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…e02abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 6.5%7 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 118 | 5.9%7 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5720…515fbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 6c | 299.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 4c | 252.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…7a0abacked Yes | 9c | 232.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…c59ebacked Yes | 9c | 213.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…a8f7backed Yes | 10c | 206.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d6…2136backed Yes | 11c | 199.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 6c | 184.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…f309backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.