TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,750 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes14c26,206$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.171,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Yes4c20,530$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.95141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes30c17,068$5,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,198.353330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes4c17,011$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.757211.1%8 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes12c15,078$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.6466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x021b…384cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1847…d94abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No74c9,921$7,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.6556429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd1…6256backed Yes11c9,869$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.11010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-64.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c8,197$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes16c7,200$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.4431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes27c6,993$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.8431621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes2c6,301$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.962713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes33c5,720$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.11,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes26c5,704$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47063414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes10c5,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51036411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507216.7%12 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes3c5,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.614025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes30c4,000$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.7457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No73c3,851$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.6911556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No72c3,830$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.4154675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes11c3,800$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.997233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes44c3,718$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.846521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes26c3,638$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9509626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes27c3,437$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.3610036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes7c3,002$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1624815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No70c2,693$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.3416056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x653f…c386backed Yes10c2,599$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.56823.5%16 W · 52 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c2,450$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.382,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes5c2,400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1245628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No64c2,290$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.7220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes32c2,113$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.7828526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c2,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.179811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x760e…119ebacked Yes8c2,094$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.084233.3%14 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes8c2,047$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes28c2,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.999911.1%11 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No77c1,989$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.0138828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes39c1,875$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4913513.3%18 W · 117 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes11c1,767$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7932613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…1b19backed Yes1c1,756$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No73c1,691$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.2628025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes29c1,581$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.262714.8%4 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes22c1,563$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7713718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes33c1,506$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…3557backed Yes3c1,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+123.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed No70c1,500$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.6910824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes33c1,486$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.9726411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes29c1,475$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.733537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes11c1,473$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.549413.8%13 W · 81 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes34c1,400$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4818724.1%21 W · 66 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes27c1,400$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37218822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd9…7a92backed No70c1,398$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes40c1,392$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.7217723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed Yes26c1,367$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.986241.9%26 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435a…c529backed Yes25c1,346$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.391637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a5…64ffbacked Yes38c1,330$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes10c1,316$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.97216.7%12 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes2c1,300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2621220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes20c1,298$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.541,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100424.8%2 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…1a31backed No56c1,250$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.982373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f2c…c480backed Yes8c1,200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.941450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes9c1,122$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-89.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes15c1,118$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.29977.2%7 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes17c1,103$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes6c1,100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3514332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes30c1,061$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.0416427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked No76c1,020$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5515246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes25c1,020$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.82119%4 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes30c1,014$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6113318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes6c1,003$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3734127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27025023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2306630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No58c999.93$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.2446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…d145backed Yes35c989.15$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.834427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes2c974.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.146097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes29c962.5$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27646521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes2c930$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.694822.9%11 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes34c928.41$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.12128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d5…4dd7backed Yes38c922.21$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes17c906.53$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6819722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No74c905.24$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.136167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes3c859.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.657525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes22c851.49$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.7888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes30c840$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.127417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes21c819.73$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes31c809.42$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.341230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba13…b281backed Yes37c805.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes29c803.28$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3110422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked No73c800$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c790.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.972,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No66c775.1$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.5334425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes23c761.08$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.918312%10 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes26c747.79$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1918424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c744.9$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1731565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes24c720$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.46222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes31c717.88$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22023831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes34c710.11$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes32c705.97$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1914137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.