Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9beb2fc060b7119b0bc88665a2d36bd7eac3cc4be48bdf10ea7ea8edb08d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $394,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,750 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 14c | 26,206$3,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.17 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 4c | 20,530$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.9 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 30c | 17,068$5,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,198.35 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 4c | 17,011$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.75 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 12c | 15,078$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.64 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…384cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 74c | 9,921$7,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.65 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…6256backed Yes | 11c | 9,869$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 8,197$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 16c | 7,200$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.44 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 27c | 6,993$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.84 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,301$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 33c | 5,720$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.1 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 5,704$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.74 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 73c | 3,851$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.69 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 72c | 3,830$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.41 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 11c | 3,800$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.99 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 44c | 3,718$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.8 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 26c | 3,638$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 27c | 3,437$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.36 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 7c | 3,002$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 70c | 2,693$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.34 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653f…c386backed Yes | 10c | 2,599$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 2,450$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.38 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 5c | 2,400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 64c | 2,290$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.72 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,113$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.78 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,094$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 2,047$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 77c | 1,989$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.01 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 39c | 1,875$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.49 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,767$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.79 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 1c | 1,756$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 73c | 1,691$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.26 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,581$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.26 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,563$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.77 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 33c | 1,506$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…3557backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.69 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 33c | 1,486$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.97 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes | 29c | 1,475$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.73 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,473$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.54 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,400$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,400$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…7a92backed No | 70c | 1,398$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 40c | 1,392$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.72 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 26c | 1,367$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 25c | 1,346$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 1,330$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,316$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 20c | 1,298$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.54 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…9d92backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1a31backed No | 56c | 1,250$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.98 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…c480backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes | 9c | 1,122$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 1,118$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 17c | 1,103$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.43 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,061$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.04 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked No | 76c | 1,020$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.55 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 1,020$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,014$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.61 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 6c | 1,003$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 58c | 999.93$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.24 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…d145backed Yes | 35c | 989.15$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.83 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 2c | 974.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 29c | 962.5$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…89f3backed Yes | 2c | 930$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 928.41$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…4dd7backed Yes | 38c | 922.21$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 17c | 906.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 74c | 905.24$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.13 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 3c | 859.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 22c | 851.49$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 30c | 840$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 21c | 819.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.17 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 31c | 809.42$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba13…b281backed Yes | 37c | 805.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 803.28$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked No | 73c | 800$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.89 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 790.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 66c | 775.1$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.53 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 761.08$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 83 | 12%10 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 26c | 747.79$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 744.9$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.17 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 24c | 720$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 31c | 717.88$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 34c | 710.11$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.96 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 32c | 705.97$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.