Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb75496dbe72cfea7508bf5f8d4138e39eb380acf3c62e87c728f1bced46b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,374 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 0c | 14,955$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 0c | 14,160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 10,940$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.63 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,447$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 1c | 7,239$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,827$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…037ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,614$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,444$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 11c | 5,943$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.9 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 14c | 4,590$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.01 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 4c | 4,371$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,457$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.21 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 3,367$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.44 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,142$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 10c | 3,049$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 2,897$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,836$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 7c | 2,767$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 5c | 2,350$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…6900backed Yes | 16c | 2,192$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.72 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 2,135$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 83 | 12%10 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 2,052$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,050$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 16c | 1,994$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.1 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…6256backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes | 20c | 1,507$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.59 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,400$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 10c | 1,382$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.34 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,301$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,176$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…3102backed Yes | 20c | 1,071$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,044$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 99 | 11.1%11 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 11c | 948.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 8c | 875.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 15c | 799.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 10c | 799.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 3c | 720$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…7c47backed Yes | 3c | 709$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 20c | 693.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 12c | 640$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 2c | 634.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d6…2136backed Yes | 12c | 619.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 609.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…e1b5backed Yes | 3c | 609$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…cc18backed Yes | 3c | 605$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…219cbacked Yes | 3c | 600.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5720…515fbacked Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…6230backed Yes | 3c | 582$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef9…ea05backed Yes | 3c | 571$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 22c | 454.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…640ebacked Yes | 18c | 441.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 406.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 20c | 379.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 355.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 8c | 349.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 13c | 315.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5312…9e9bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…583fbacked Yes | 21c | 289.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ea…23dfbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…5460backed Yes | 19c | 248.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…2ba5backed No | 80c | 237.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 150 | 21.3%32 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 236.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 176 | 5.1%9 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 235.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…52f9backed No | 79c | 225.81$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…af5fbacked Yes | 12c | 203.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 8c | 200.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…c1e1backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…d0b7backed No | 80c | 187.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes | 18c | 162.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…a8f7backed Yes | 19c | 158.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes | 17c | 143.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 87 | 12.6%11 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 13c | 135.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…e473backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…7cb7backed Yes | 16c | 122.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…122cbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 10c | 111.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…88b1backed Yes | 13c | 109.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.