Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4857f026100c56fe228d6a37fe67af3976120ba6bbb53acaa3ed756cc06aecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $283,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,943 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa459…7dd6backed Yes | 1c | 26,847$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.22 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 26,219$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.29 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,771$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes | 18c | 20,290$3,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,641.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 15,622$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes | 1c | 7,624$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 21c | 5,729$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.46 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…5d40backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,960$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,831$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,764$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.65 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 35c | 3,666$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 28c | 3,600$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.98 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…2b34backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 76c | 3,216$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.89 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,074$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,020$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 16c | 2,841$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.7 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 2,728$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.82 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,643$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,452$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.52 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 67c | 2,424$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.19 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 29c | 2,378$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 27c | 2,307$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.08 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…cfa3backed Yes | 5c | 2,236$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,981$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,916$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…52d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,764$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 1,638$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,618$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,564$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,514$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 23c | 1,501$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.88 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02eb…e1b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,484$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,479$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,400$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.28 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,400$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 18c | 1,390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 12c | 1,370$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…037ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,267$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 1,235$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.89 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 27c | 1,109$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 31c | 1,043$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.54 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes | 22c | 999.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d69…01aebacked Yes | 1c | 968.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 959.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 949.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 31c | 940.05$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.52 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 33c | 934.94$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.39 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9466backed Yes | 5c | 906.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…460abacked Yes | 6c | 869.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 843.06$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.34 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 798.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 25c | 762.6$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.65 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 760$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 10c | 720$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 705.82$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.3 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 704.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 21c | 699.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 32c | 681.25$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…89d6backed No | 80c | 667.11$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef8…f510backed Yes | 5c | 604$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 19c | 599.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 30c | 574.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 10c | 572.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 15c | 563.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 11c | 529.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 526.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 5c | 523.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…82c2backed Yes | 24c | 515$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…34babacked Yes | 3c | 511.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 23c | 509$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…d145backed Yes | 20c | 492.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 33c | 459.91$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…5963backed Yes | 28c | 445.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 28c | 440$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 24c | 425.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…8ab7backed Yes | 4c | 419.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 419$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…79d8backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 26c | 388.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba13…b281backed Yes | 23c | 353.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…d2bfbacked Yes | 3c | 349.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 27c | 338.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 135 | 13.3%18 W · 117 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773b…640ebacked Yes | 24c | 331.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 7c | 328.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 14c | 326.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.