Token Launches · resolved market
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5b7418c764d24a4d5cf646eab350e036e7d8bb8c7b346301f4b43a28ce1846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $647,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $604,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $647,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 519 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 77c | 24,916$19,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,799.26 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…91dfbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked No | 6c | 17,371$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.57 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked No | 69c | 15,044$10,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,435.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 10c | 12,815$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.5 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…460dbacked Yes | 33c | 12,294$4,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,275.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 11c | 10,961$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.52 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…d475backed Yes | 32c | 9,905$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,714.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed No | 67c | 9,867$6,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,565.43 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 60c | 8,776$5,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,277.08 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 29c | 8,159$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,771.78 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed No | 32c | 7,228$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.06 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked No | 40c | 7,204$2,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.15 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…dda5backed No | 30c | 7,063$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…ce91backed Yes | 51c | 6,853$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,388.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 9c | 6,680$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 65c | 6,322$4,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,135.33 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 41c | 6,310$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.39 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 48c | 5,860$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.78 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked No | 5c | 5,396$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 26c | 5,356$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,989.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 5,191$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 5,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 20c | 5,104$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.67 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…5e7fbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202c…2d9fbacked No | 74c | 5,000$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 46c | 4,930$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 29c | 4,848$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,437.13 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 37c | 4,642$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.75 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…90d0backed No | 12c | 4,632$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…8dc5backed No | 1c | 4,331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 4,057$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.05 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…bb57backed Yes | 41c | 4,006$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…73a2backed No | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d70…5044backed No | 10c | 3,950$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 17c | 3,580$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.55 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c212backed No | 54c | 3,402$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…9bd0backed Yes | 55c | 3,285$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…2d97backed Yes | 32c | 3,122$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 21c | 3,100$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.53 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…5757backed Yes | 32c | 3,093$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed Yes | 73c | 3,019$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.49 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 48c | 2,941$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.4 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…9357backed No | 10c | 2,900$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +611.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c3…5d6ebacked No | 11c | 2,852$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,850$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.76 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…46bbbacked Yes | 41c | 2,833$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,772$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 30c | 2,707$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.67 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa332…c305backed No | 7c | 2,700$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…8d0fbacked No | 20c | 2,681$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 35c | 2,664$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.68 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 56c | 2,578$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.3 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…e474backed No | 12c | 2,545$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…9211backed Yes | 80c | 2,535$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed No | 17c | 2,453$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…7917backed Yes | 37c | 2,438$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed No | 25c | 2,431$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…b90abacked No | 14c | 2,334$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 2,328$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.31 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 72c | 2,292$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.3 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 66c | 2,267$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.1 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 73c | 2,220$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.61 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…82f1backed No | 16c | 2,200$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…a1e3backed No | 15c | 2,174$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b03…ffe3backed No | 13c | 2,150$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 9c | 2,069$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a17ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,041$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 2c | 2,039$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…11debacked No | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 28c | 2,001$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.62 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…c2f4backed No | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…b37ebacked No | 11c | 2,000$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 25c | 1,960$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.51 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…e506backed Yes | 25c | 1,952$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +292.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 71c | 1,912$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.53 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…13edbacked No | 60c | 1,900$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed No | 21c | 1,865$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…b40abacked No | 13c | 1,850$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 9c | 1,822$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…889dbacked No | 16c | 1,800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed No | 17c | 1,796$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed No | 32c | 1,787$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed No | 18c | 1,763$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.97 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…495dbacked No | 51c | 1,762$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…fc38backed Yes | 56c | 1,755$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 68c | 1,734$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed No | 13c | 1,709$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 70c | 1,680$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.55 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…139ebacked No | 19c | 1,672$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,646$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…51aebacked No | 15c | 1,600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…d285backed Yes | 39c | 1,579$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7d…61b5backed No | 64c | 1,527$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…54efbacked No | 67c | 1,487$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…99fbbacked Yes | 73c | 1,464$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…3249backed Yes | 33c | 1,439$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…2a49backed No | 70c | 1,425$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Moonbirds FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.