TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6252…495d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Music, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Music at 53 out of 100; worst Other European Leagues at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$260
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$540
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+112.8%+$530
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$112.43
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$908Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$907.63
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$333
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+34.2%+$153
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$145
Kodiak FDV above $25M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$82.83
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$254.99
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+455.6%+$409.99
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$284.5
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+117.4%+$270
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$340
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+29.6%+$148.05
Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+100%+$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$494
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$670
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$150.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$125
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$165
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$149
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.