Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ec7d0b3e392f15a8ef30fa31dd607aebeddd615c3ee6564eb942b2de349a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $499,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $464,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 0c | 57,852$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 2c | 33,375$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.34 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 6c | 26,500$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.29 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 3c | 19,776$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.59 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 5c | 14,772$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,879$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…0393backed Yes | 5c | 12,750$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 64c | 10,005$6,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.51 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 6c | 9,999$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 14c | 9,067$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.62 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…dd48backed Yes | 4c | 7,340$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…b7b0backed Yes | 2c | 6,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 6,034$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 2c | 5,633$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 2c | 3,991$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…0b52backed Yes | 5c | 3,950$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,553$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.87 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 4c | 3,201$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 3c | 3,099$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 5c | 2,714$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 1c | 2,311$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…f54fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,890$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b58…db59backed Yes | 6c | 1,757$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…77d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,739$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 6c | 1,518$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 3c | 1,443$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…a66bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,388$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Yes | 5c | 1,385$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…61fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,358$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Yes | 7c | 1,329$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,323$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…5e93backed Yes | 2c | 1,319$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…d28dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,248$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…0f22backed Yes | 34c | 1,233$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,069$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f61…8e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 54c | 975.48$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.2 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Yes | 4c | 950.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…3179backed Yes | 2c | 859.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 52c | 829$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.11 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed Yes | 13c | 808.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 7c | 772.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…1b2fbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 65c | 627.69$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…9dfcbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 3c | 572.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…3f1fbacked Yes | 5c | 564.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…7802backed Yes | 5c | 535.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d48…0253backed Yes | 4c | 530.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 2c | 501.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…84f3backed Yes | 6c | 500.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…495dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…9d71backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…9f30backed Yes | 45c | 492.68$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1e…1b0bbacked Yes | 3c | 492.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…a224backed Yes | 4c | 461.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…3108backed Yes | 75c | 446$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…bee5backed Yes | 2c | 401.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…cae8backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…2869backed Yes | 5c | 324.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…f9cabacked Yes | 5c | 324.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…a82bbacked Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4eb…6055backed Yes | 16c | 285.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…6a1fbacked Yes | 9c | 267.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…7076backed Yes | 10c | 250.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Yes | 7c | 233.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 65c | 166$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…9bc3backed Yes | 8c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…7518backed Yes | 37c | 150.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 78c | 127.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 44c | 125.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…24bdbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…96a9backed No | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes | 62c | 115.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…a95dbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e0…6c12backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa737…68f8backed No | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed No | 61c | 45.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…7536backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.