Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c512c7fbdbf2fa1ece574029adf88fecb9a6d80199186f3f3d06bf77143905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 7c | 15,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.95 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…d136backed Yes | 74c | 14,043$10,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.97 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 24c | 10,005$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.81 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 16c | 4,859$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.44 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 34c | 3,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…305bbacked No | 29c | 3,000$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 18c | 2,987$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.65 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed No | 20c | 2,521$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed No | 24c | 1,920$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.2 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 77c | 1,626$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.08 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a85…e05ebacked Yes | 80c | 950$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…1e5dbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed Yes | 72c | 299.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4768backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 76c | 143.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 18c | 120.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…c60abacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked No | 22c | 89.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked No | 39c | 62.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…d3b5backed Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…5cdebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 68c | 41.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 39c | 38.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 44c | 25.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…6013backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.