TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c18,449$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4523411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3139…0c17backed Yes7c14,606$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+220.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f09…cdd5backed Yes0c10,913$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes23c10,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes1c9,081$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.49432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c6,117$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.951,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ea…6663backed Yes11c5,866$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes18c5,727$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.5922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes10c3,535$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0717231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes9c3,098$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f2…89a3backed Yes8c2,753$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes4c2,700$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dba…b54dbacked No75c2,666$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.251675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ac…f0c1backed Yes6c2,434$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes11c2,422$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.883910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa0…b333backed Yes9c2,233$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef9…96f2backed Yes9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…6936backed Yes14c2,104$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5197…c843backed Yes1c2,003$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c7…35b9backed Yes1c1,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a47…3f7bbacked Yes30c1,648$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes6c1,573$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.74320%0 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b14…a94dbacked Yes15c1,423$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c1,348$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.131431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes24c1,090$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+76.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes11c1,000$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes12c900$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.93724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a62…b94ebacked Yes10c849.2$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e4…068bbacked Yes5c636.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes10c610.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a31…e2efbacked Yes10c600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1c…5793backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718b…4e9ebacked No78c464.08$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes3c459.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-85.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes25c458$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7410…04a3backed Yes4c454.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes23c440.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.98911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bab…058dbacked Yes29c414.66$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No79c403.98$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8318162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa9…cac0backed Yes22c399.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.681442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes14c397.57$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.55048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No76c390.88$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.815869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062b…9a6bbacked Yes29c330.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf9a…83f8backed Yes6c310.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8bb…f9c0backed No79c300$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0582…90a7backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes15c248.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6855032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd64…ce44backed Yes26c234.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6526…637dbacked Yes9c231.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Yes9c219.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed Yes42c211$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.681573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+44.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No77c203.44$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.811265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd243…cf1cbacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9d…b0d6backed Yes20c199.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe0…d59cbacked Yes12c191.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd805…52c2backed Yes19c151.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295446.3%25 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…77acbacked Yes21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes23c140$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.783212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9348…6a1fbacked Yes19c125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes10c120.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73020%6 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6075…6a7bbacked Yes20c115.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes18c108$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x035a…e211backed Yes24c102.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No69c100.72$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.727746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2010067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x527b…8443backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3da…c238backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbdf…1191backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f6…4152backed Yes12c99.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…0d95backed Yes21c94.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc83…0aebbacked No75c93.4$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…d1b7backed Yes19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.01850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70d9…dfe7backed Yes25c79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes24c77.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.811373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e3…2899backed Yes22c76.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+57.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x114d…661fbacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.091428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef1a…b16bbacked Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5379…a031backed Yes18c56.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710555.2%58 W · 47 L+11.7wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d94…b914backed Yes22c49.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738c…1de9backed No75c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a3…d264backed No75c26.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741776.5%13 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.