Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4073eda6005723646ae8f3bd4e7ecd2ac741c7857511f645d854d344076d772
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 18,449$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3139…0c17backed Yes | 7c | 14,606$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 24cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…cdd5backed Yes | 0c | 10,913$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 1c | 9,081$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,117$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…6663backed Yes | 11c | 5,866$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 18c | 5,727$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.59 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 10c | 3,535$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.07 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes | 9c | 3,098$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…89a3backed Yes | 8c | 2,753$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 4c | 2,700$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…b54dbacked No | 75c | 2,666$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…f0c1backed Yes | 6c | 2,434$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 2,422$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.88 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa0…b333backed Yes | 9c | 2,233$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…96f2backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…6936backed Yes | 14c | 2,104$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…c843backed Yes | 1c | 2,003$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…35b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a47…3f7bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,648$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,573$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…a94dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,423$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,348$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 24c | 1,090$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 12c | 900$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…b94ebacked Yes | 10c | 849.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…068bbacked Yes | 5c | 636.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 610.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a31…e2efbacked Yes | 10c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…5793backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…4e9ebacked No | 78c | 464.08$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 3c | 459.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 25c | 458$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes | 23c | 440.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…058dbacked Yes | 29c | 414.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 79c | 403.98$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed Yes | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 14c | 397.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 76c | 390.88$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x062b…9a6bbacked Yes | 29c | 330.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…83f8backed Yes | 6c | 310.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…90a7backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 15c | 248.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…ce44backed Yes | 26c | 234.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…637dbacked Yes | 9c | 231.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Yes | 9c | 219.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 42c | 211$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 77c | 203.44$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…cf1cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…b0d6backed Yes | 20c | 199.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…d59cbacked Yes | 12c | 191.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 19c | 151.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…77acbacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 23c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…6a1fbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 10c | 120.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6075…6a7bbacked Yes | 20c | 115.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 18c | 108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…e211backed Yes | 24c | 102.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 69c | 100.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527b…8443backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c238backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…1191backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…c8d5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…4152backed Yes | 12c | 99.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…0d95backed Yes | 21c | 94.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc83…0aebbacked No | 75c | 93.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…d1b7backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…dfe7backed Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 24c | 77.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 22c | 76.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…b16bbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 18c | 56.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d94…b914backed Yes | 22c | 49.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…1de9backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…d264backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.