TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$623,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$617,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $623,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8059…6936backed Yes13c52,288$6,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,723.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b4…3b36backed Yes1c51,255$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c23,129$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf22…3463backed Yes11c22,098$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c20,245$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2623411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes6c15,928$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa941…40cabacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a1…a78fbacked Yes13c14,099$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes3c10,374$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No62c9,313$5,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe166…0099backed Yes18c6,790$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x053b…5e50backed Yes1c4,812$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a93…5804backed Yes5c4,648$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No73c4,281$3,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+76.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes13c4,178$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c3,738$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.481,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes9c3,645$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.2287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471f…fd87backed Yes17c3,409$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c3,197$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.961431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef9…96f2backed Yes6c3,100$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c83…0f55backed Yes13c2,805$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.61020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes4c2,756$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.08598.5%5 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked No68c2,755$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e57…5640backed Yes3c2,669$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ed…c66dbacked Yes2c2,622$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f4…3f02backed Yes2c2,598$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64df…ab80backed No52c2,500$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2102100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe764…9ababacked Yes35c1,938$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No78c1,856$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes5c1,856$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.56320%0 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdff…806ebacked No75c1,855$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.822161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes4c1,837$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.423910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes9c1,619$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0755032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1c…7d3fbacked Yes7c1,539$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fce…305bbacked No76c1,341$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.982646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No70c1,181$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf16…0601backed Yes9c1,179$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8d…c891backed Yes9c1,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes16c1,047$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfae…7922backed Yes2c1,024$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0590…368dbacked Yes12c1,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc9…61fbbacked Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x208c…b6f2backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes14c968.62$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382010%2 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98c6…e200backed No68c860$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1b…3be7backed Yes12c822.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes19c805.23$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.993426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5302…208abacked No74c760$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.32250%11 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa0…b333backed Yes10c653.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes15c649.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes8c600$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c6…e00abacked Yes12c600$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ad…f96dbacked Yes4c564.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb988…a7bebacked Yes10c562.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0668…22fbbacked Yes7c500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbb…4568backed Yes5c472.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf346…8232backed Yes23c470.37$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.92615.4%4 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Yes3c461.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…fdf9backed Yes43c461.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0be…492fbacked Yes3c454$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Yes9c449.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x279d…1f27backed Yes3c435$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5153…fb14backed Yes49c423.37$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f32…7b50backed Yes5c418.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x062b…9a6bbacked Yes17c394.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57c3…e40fbacked Yes14c362.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes7c354.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1717231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9d…b0d6backed Yes9c346.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x632f…0c7dbacked Yes15c322.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes12c319.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No68c319$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a0e…27a4backed Yes16c316.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d0…ef3ebacked Yes4c312.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e3…2899backed Yes5c304.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed Yes31c302.69$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.831573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+44.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x74e4…c23fbacked Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…5ed6backed Yes15c299.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdd…df61backed Yes11c286.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a81…41c7backed Yes19c272.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x386e…3463backed Yes5c256$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.864632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3906…ce97backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f51…eacebacked Yes4c240.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes14c218.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked Yes14c215.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e36…14e7backed Yes18c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ee…9153backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fe…5291backed Yes11c193.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No76c170$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f17…b34cbacked Yes12c167.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d8…2b8dbacked Yes24c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d50…ab95backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed Yes7c147.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…77acbacked Yes10c140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d9…dfe7backed Yes14c138.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ef…7a63backed Yes9c127.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ac…cc5cbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa768…edb5backed Yes11c124.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05d…8a4dbacked Yes12c121.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x035a…e211backed Yes13c120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.