Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45cbe54b742cecf4469582180ba82167aae911f789fee71bfa62abf5ce57253f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $623,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $617,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $623,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8059…6936backed Yes | 13c | 52,288$6,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,723.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…3b36backed Yes | 1c | 51,255$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,129$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…3463backed Yes | 11c | 22,098$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 20,245$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.26 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 6c | 15,928$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…40cabacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…a78fbacked Yes | 13c | 14,099$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes | 3c | 10,374$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.8 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 62c | 9,313$5,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,547.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…0099backed Yes | 18c | 6,790$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…5e50backed Yes | 1c | 4,812$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…5804backed Yes | 5c | 4,648$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 73c | 4,281$3,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes | 13c | 4,178$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 3,738$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.48 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,645$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.22 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…fd87backed Yes | 17c | 3,409$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,197$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…96f2backed Yes | 6c | 3,100$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 13c | 2,805$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,756$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked No | 68c | 2,755$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…5640backed Yes | 3c | 2,669$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…c66dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,622$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…3f02backed Yes | 2c | 2,598$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…ab80backed No | 52c | 2,500$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe764…9ababacked Yes | 35c | 1,938$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 78c | 1,856$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.36 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,856$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked No | 75c | 1,855$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 4c | 1,837$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,619$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1c…7d3fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,539$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…305bbacked No | 76c | 1,341$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 70c | 1,181$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…0601backed Yes | 9c | 1,179$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…c891backed Yes | 9c | 1,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,047$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…7922backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…368dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…61fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…b6f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 14c | 968.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c6…e200backed No | 68c | 860$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…3be7backed Yes | 12c | 822.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 19c | 805.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked No | 74c | 760$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa0…b333backed Yes | 10c | 653.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 15c | 649.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…e00abacked Yes | 12c | 600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ad…f96dbacked Yes | 4c | 564.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…a7bebacked Yes | 10c | 562.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0668…22fbbacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…4568backed Yes | 5c | 472.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 23c | 470.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Yes | 3c | 461.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…fdf9backed Yes | 43c | 461.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked Yes | 3c | 454$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Yes | 9c | 449.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…1f27backed Yes | 3c | 435$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…fb14backed Yes | 49c | 423.37$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f32…7b50backed Yes | 5c | 418.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062b…9a6bbacked Yes | 17c | 394.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…e40fbacked Yes | 14c | 362.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 7c | 354.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…b0d6backed Yes | 9c | 346.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…0c7dbacked Yes | 15c | 322.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 12c | 319.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 68c | 319$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…27a4backed Yes | 16c | 316.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…ef3ebacked Yes | 4c | 312.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 5c | 304.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 31c | 302.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e4…c23fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…5ed6backed Yes | 15c | 299.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…df61backed Yes | 11c | 286.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…41c7backed Yes | 19c | 272.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed Yes | 5c | 256$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…ce97backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f51…eacebacked Yes | 4c | 240.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad7…e72bbacked Yes | 14c | 218.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked Yes | 14c | 215.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…14e7backed Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…9153backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…5291backed Yes | 11c | 193.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 76c | 170$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f17…b34cbacked Yes | 12c | 167.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Yes | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…ab95backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 7c | 147.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…77acbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…dfe7backed Yes | 14c | 138.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…7a63backed Yes | 9c | 127.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…cc5cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…edb5backed Yes | 11c | 124.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…8a4dbacked Yes | 12c | 121.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…e211backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.