Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7218ecfe6193003b0608ade2f774bf50de4e607b2cdbc7bc1b9b3cc532383f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 55c | 10,003$5,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,510.99 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…6667backed Yes | 78c | 7,216$5,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…d136backed Yes | 57c | 6,879$3,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 42c | 4,999$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.77 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…305bbacked Yes | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 64c | 2,097$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed No | 29c | 2,090$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.3 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,656$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.52 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 62c | 1,197$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.21 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf024…ec7abacked No | 74c | 1,097$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4768backed Yes | 56c | 926.25$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.55 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 36c | 557.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.33 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…27a4backed Yes | 57c | 526.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 35c | 430$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 59c | 404$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.26 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed Yes | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…4f28backed Yes | 63c | 394.78$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…32a4backed Yes | 58c | 381.03$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 49c | 377.36$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.65 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 66c | 375.9$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 42c | 349.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 69c | 281.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 34c | 281.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…c238backed No | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 51c | 247.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 56c | 230.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed No | 65c | 209.56$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed No | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 32c | 175.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a27…731cbacked No | 44c | 165$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…49b6backed Yes | 30c | 158$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +83%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…026dbacked Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 23c | 87.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 60c | 69.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 56c | 62.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 52c | 52.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…d6aebacked No | 48c | 45.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 23c | 43.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 64c | 42.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…67f8backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…0a8abacked Yes | 55c | 36.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…a457backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd707…d83dbacked Yes | 62c | 27.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 63c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…f749backed Yes | 56c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.