Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29abff484b6d3e7280a78571c6454ab2b4aeef2b3ee8f00b577808499603828b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 2c | 19,231$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.41 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 7c | 13,668$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.62 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…336ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c7…e53fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,034$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…c4d3backed Yes | 15c | 5,350$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 78c | 2,454$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,254$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…0f22backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…5ed6backed Yes | 9c | 1,195$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,114$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,015$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 11c | 918.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 14c | 735.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…a82bbacked Yes | 28c | 712.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e0…6c12backed No | 78c | 600$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f47…338ebacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…03eebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 9c | 159$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…e083backed Yes | 25c | 136.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed Yes | 8c | 128.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…afb1backed Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.