Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5f5ab61d3972307ae55e0ca74dfe9fbbcce81cff8b42540de70e552b67a24d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 2c | 44,826$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 16c | 18,314$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.25 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 1c | 3,909$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4779…ec9abacked Yes | 3c | 3,260$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 56c | 2,192$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.12 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…04b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…c843backed Yes | 1c | 1,469$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b2…865ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,287$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…198fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,178$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f47…338ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…0f22backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 993.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…d28dbacked Yes | 51c | 900$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 720.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 717.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…7802backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 2c | 483.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…997fbacked Yes | 3c | 458.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b58…db59backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…ceb6backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…b7b0backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…d46bbacked Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 58c | 90.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes | 37c | 62.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…4e09backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 38c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed No | 60c | 26.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e0…6c12backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.