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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$493,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$459,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,394 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes34c65,710$22,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,072.0937745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No74c51,538$38,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,347.0619535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes40c29,625$11,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,770.34047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No65c27,339$17,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,571.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c23,445$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.0823411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6cd…77c1backed No79c15,021$11,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,225.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…6936backed Yes23c14,907$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f2…89a3backed Yes10c14,900$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes48c14,026$6,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,795.7611554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.96323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No64c9,087$5,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,233.675869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…76afbacked Yes52c7,159$3,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,722.341145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d0e…96ddbacked Yes1c6,411$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.94432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-92.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fce…305bbacked No50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.32646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…5b2bbacked Yes1c5,744$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes5c5,287$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.34119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-85.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3004858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked No60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0007123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8b…30e4backed Yes16c4,999$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,659$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.231,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes19c4,477$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.7722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes10c4,147$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.2917231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf466…fcb4backed Yes3c3,846$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4b4…2414backed Yes51c3,758$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4864…03adbacked Yes13c3,702$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes4c3,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4198…ae38backed Yes28c2,930$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-81.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes0c2,492$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94310%0 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x766c…12b3backed Yes3c2,461$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bf…95d3backed No63c2,430$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed Yes40c2,420$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.731040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed No78c2,139$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.321968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fc9…61fbbacked Yes1c1,982$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91f6…525bbacked Yes14c1,918$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…d1b7backed Yes46c1,800$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes29c1,778$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.93944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes30c1,670$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bbb…4568backed Yes15c1,600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes27c1,513$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.7287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes7c1,436$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.091431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b14…a94dbacked Yes3c1,436$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5f…e2f9backed Yes42c1,299$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes1c1,253$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.672999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b65…b8a9backed Yes3c1,238$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes2c1,224$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5812012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71f5…6491backed Yes5c1,219$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed No73c1,197$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.34165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e4…c23fbacked Yes16c1,000$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4b…8d73backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ad…9186backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes3c1,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes45c1,000$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb8e…4fccbacked Yes39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No72c999.99$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28513770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda3b…d556backed No79c999.97$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a0…5d11backed Yes40c983.08$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes2c950.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7817229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes31c783.63$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.943910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Yes13c780$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes20c734.02$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.715048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x137e…5292backed Yes14c724.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9960…b774backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d68…db93backed Yes3c709.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab8…e88ebacked Yes13c701.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x534d…a7d3backed No73c700$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1865766.7%38 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ad4…7802backed Yes3c676.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731b…f9cabacked Yes3c618.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c2…84f3backed Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes16c566.58$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9128021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd64…ce44backed Yes47c549.49$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.21233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf346…8232backed Yes31c548.88$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702615.4%4 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30f…e731backed Yes9c540$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4990%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c512.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b9…4ed0backed Yes21c499.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28aa…28b8backed Yes2c472.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc616…3eedbacked Yes4c460$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.641127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f9f…c934backed Yes7c457.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64df…ab80backed No78c456$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes8c432.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.72320%0 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked Yes6c423$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes52c419.26$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1234848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes46c414.79$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.944658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes56c407.86$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.852123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No75c399.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No51c392.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.3812736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb02c…3766backed Yes28c354.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5b…d59dbacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes61c336$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.243330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1e2…c86fbacked Yes38c333.4$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No48c330$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.110545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe541…eadcbacked Yes56c309.86$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a6…409cbacked No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753773%27 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6252…495dbacked Yes46c299.98$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2683…b5bfbacked No69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.866041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x905a…dff1backed Yes35c286.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8f…7994backed No70c284.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-52.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe15e…7d22backed Yes33c280.03$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.