Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8872f0d7650aba84ce089eb1bfadcefe0a8391690616528d843d9a2fdcc28f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $233,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 80c | 39,448$31,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,971.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 70c | 25,002$17,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,447.82 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…e00dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ec…c4debacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…0209backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…9666backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 33c | 8,323$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,562.55 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 9c | 6,128$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.93 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…f816backed Yes | 43c | 3,457$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 36c | 2,900$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…95d3backed No | 72c | 2,821$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…6709backed No | 3c | 2,424$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,293$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 69c | 2,120$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…d136backed Yes | 52c | 1,617$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 17c | 1,474$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.68 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,142$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…6936backed Yes | 33c | 903.47$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 62c | 900$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 8c | 819.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 34c | 796.23$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.08 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked Yes | 73c | 794.44$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked No | 65c | 654$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 70c | 632.28$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 29c | 600$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.8 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 52c | 507$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed No | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…0f22backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 11c | 464$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Yes | 14c | 410.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 74c | 337.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 25c | 325.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…cac0backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 22c | 299.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…77d8backed Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 19c | 244$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…3c6dbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…03eebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…df61backed Yes | 35c | 176.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…0b52backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…8aa6backed No | 55c | 103.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…8613backed Yes | 78c | 102.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…8d73backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 49c | 82.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…2f3fbacked No | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 80c | 78.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…886ebacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 57c | 72.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 72c | 69.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 23c | 60.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…9b93backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…32a4backed No | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…a818backed Yes | 57c | 39.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 37c | 34.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…b3e5backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…6996backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 1-7?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.