TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0582…90a7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
81
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: MLB, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2532%8 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+977.8%+$181.44
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$97
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Bills vs. Steelersbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+61.3%+$36.77
49ers vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+284.6%+$113.85
Bengals vs. Ravensbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+334.8%+$66.96
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+132.6%+$53.02
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Buccaneers vs. Billsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Packers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Commanders vs. Dolphinsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Bills vs. Dolphinsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Raiders vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+29.5%+$53.05
Cardinals vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Bears vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Bears vs. Ravensbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Vikings vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+361%+$144.4
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$146.5
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$132
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$331
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+150%+$31.5
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$15
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST80%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Avalanchebacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Stars vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Kings vs. Canadiensbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+88.7%+$35.47
Jets vs. Kingsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$120
All 4 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
MarginFi airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2024, EDT+88.7%+$35.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+339%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+339%+$245.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Interstellar object confirmed aliens?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.