TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bengals vs. Ravens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bengalsof Bengals, Ravens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,888,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,528,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,888,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Ravens77c1,298,791$1,000,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000,068.722050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bengals23c1,211,131$275,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935,817.2447348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Ravens78c1,008,041$786,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786,191.3717041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Bengals32c743,319$241,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,865.526248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Bengals23c422,045$95,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326,454.0213843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bengals29c335,143$97,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237,249.2847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bengals28c286,745$78,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207,777.495431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bengals55c270,641$148,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,760.230043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bengals22c243,334$54,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188,978.1353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Ravens77c216,365$166,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166,364.677951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Bengals22c208,180$46,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,157.8512144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Ravens1c193,580$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.810333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bengals47c159,941$74,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,257.6616955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x858d…1047backed Bengals34c156,412$53,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,308.42516%4 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bengals22c151,605$33,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118,251.8519553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Bengals23c150,208$34,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,660.081735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Ravens14c129,543$18,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,304.7386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Ravens1c103,000$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0307733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bengals23c100,000$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,00014342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ravens49c97,670$47,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,874.9173651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Ravens78c92,165$71,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,719.1820755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Ravens78c80,000$62,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,399.9511168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xca36…1e9cbacked Bengals22c62,318$13,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,607.922653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ravens72c59,862$42,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,961.9275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Ravens64c55,000$35,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,2008164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bengals23c50,000$11,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,50027454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Bengals22c50,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,0007626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Ravens51c45,735$23,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,439.9524652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bengals24c45,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,199.647440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Bengals23c44,970$10,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,626.92965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bengals24c43,637$10,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,180.4514951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Ravens52c42,854$22,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,331.996245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Ravens78c39,664$30,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,937.9210650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Ravens78c38,000$29,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,6405756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Ravens76c34,861$26,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,338.275261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Ravens25c33,654$8,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,482.58219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Ravens76c32,895$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0003056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Ravens77c31,333$24,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,220.42470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ravens75c30,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50017454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Ravens75c29,291$21,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,967.9531240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Ravens70c28,759$20,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,055.647657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Bengals65c28,322$18,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,828.996459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ravens79c26,830$21,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,119.4420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bengals30c26,744$7,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,821.2812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Bengals32c25,190$8,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,129.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Ravens78c25,000$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,50013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens79c24,633$19,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,517.8383147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b6…5a9ebacked Ravens78c24,465$19,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,082.930%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a5afbacked Bengals23c24,465$5,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,838.22580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+121.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Bengals22c22,222$4,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,333.162657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Bengals22c21,164$4,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,507.922133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a6…a7e9backed Bengals73c20,843$15,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,649.28366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Bengals23c20,842$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,047.965957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bengals25c20,705$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,593.9530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Ravens76c20,658$15,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,700.084365.1%28 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Bengals37c20,532$7,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,858.94837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bengals22c20,000$4,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,563.4314641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Bengals40c19,979$8,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,939.321931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Bengals29c16,310$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,587.3810026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Bengals37c16,216$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,216.2213142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bengals36c16,041$5,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,313.7812748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ravens76c15,554$11,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,820.9424957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Bengals23c15,000$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6207558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Bengals70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Bengals55c14,673$8,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,636.5311254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ca…300ebacked Bengals25c14,600$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,950250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Ravens68c14,343$9,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,796.178532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Ravens68c14,129$9,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,657.195246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bengals27c13,983$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,208.668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Bengals23c13,333$3,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,280.554634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bengals25c13,327$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,986.9931543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Bengals71c12,553$8,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,701.152250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Bengals22c12,154$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,478.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Ravens76c12,150$9,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2343863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Bengals23c12,136$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,344.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Bengals78c11,340$8,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.765459.3%32 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Ravens36c10,975$3,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,951.036544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Ravens76c10,969$8,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,336.6512744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Ravens1c10,339$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3933328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Ravens78c10,317$8,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,057.4744652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Ravens78c10,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80013065.4%85 W · 45 L+17.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Bengals23c10,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7004955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Ravens70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ec7…f874backed Bengals24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,600560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Ravens77c9,800$7,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5461050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54e…0950backed Bengals23c9,800$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,545.97560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Bengals23c9,694$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,464.561741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ravens27c9,555$2,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,596.4423244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bengals21c9,487$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,485.3520039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Bengals23c9,354$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,202.585650%28 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2df3…698bbacked Ravens6c9,278$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9607…2d3abacked Bengals22c9,091$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,090.914100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+200.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Ravens80c8,893$7,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,086.527557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Ravens3c8,750$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.516737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Bengals24c8,362$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,361.5316648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Bengals75c8,238$6,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.0112249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Bengals26c8,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9208946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Ravens62c8,000$4,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Ravens74c7,747$5,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,732.436339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Bengals22c7,605$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,914.745756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.