TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 322: Meerschaert vs. Daukaus (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Daukausof Meerschaert, Daukaus
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbad…9c95backed Meerschaert18c20,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Meerschaert19c8,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Meerschaert20c7,135$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.036451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3d…5d4cbacked Meerschaert19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95090%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Meerschaert18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Meerschaert18c4,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Meerschaert19c4,300$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81712541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Daukaus80c2,809$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.136334.9%22 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Meerschaert21c2,361$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Meerschaert19c2,200$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4184946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Meerschaert17c2,100$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3617736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Meerschaert21c2,050$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Meerschaert19c2,029$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.4337152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Meerschaert19c1,867$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.7435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Meerschaert19c1,800$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Daukaus80c1,686$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.04988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+37.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Meerschaert19c1,488$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.788940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Meerschaert19c1,396$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.26533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Meerschaert18c1,385$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9910928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Daukaus80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Meerschaert20c1,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Daukaus79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Meerschaert21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Daukaus74c995.63$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.912262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Meerschaert19c971.01$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.499228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Meerschaert21c818.72$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.033315.2%5 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Daukaus80c700$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14026743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Daukaus79c677.01$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8423850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Daukaus78c640.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6335664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Meerschaert19c598.53$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.722630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Meerschaert19c551.87$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3823537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked Meerschaert19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Meerschaert26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6514929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Daukaus80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3241…5a44backed Meerschaert20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Meerschaert20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Meerschaert25c495$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.453525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Daukaus78c464.1$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.15244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Daukaus78c450.47$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.56837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Daukaus79c443.03$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed Daukaus80c400$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.511152.3%58 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a8c…934cbacked Meerschaert20c375$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Meerschaert20c330$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Meerschaert19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Meerschaert20c275.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2818038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Daukaus80c264.75$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9516851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Meerschaert19c262.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ab…482ebacked Meerschaert20c251.84$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Meerschaert17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Daukaus80c230$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Meerschaert22c225$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.590553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Daukaus80c212.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.791752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Daukaus78c210$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4721554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Daukaus80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cdd…11bebacked Meerschaert20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Meerschaert22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4416736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Meerschaert24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4848749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Meerschaert38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd58b…48e8backed Meerschaert19c199.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Meerschaert18c195$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Meerschaert18c150.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1521044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Meerschaert22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Meerschaert20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Meerschaert20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked Meerschaert22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Meerschaert18c110$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Meerschaert19c107.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.914344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ea…dcf4backed Meerschaert19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb780…e7a2backed Meerschaert20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Meerschaert21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Daukaus79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b48…09e4backed Meerschaert19c91.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.382528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae3…47ccbacked Meerschaert22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0582…90a7backed Meerschaert19c75.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Daukaus74c75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.524847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89b…9041backed Meerschaert32c63.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…9f5abacked Meerschaert19c57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9004…1d2cbacked Daukaus80c55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Meerschaert20c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Meerschaert20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…b4e6backed Meerschaert20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Meerschaert22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Daukaus79c49.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Daukaus50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848f…612fbacked Daukaus75c33.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Daukaus75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Daukaus79c26.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5812147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x686a…c769backed Daukaus79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.326100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Daukaus79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+121%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Daukaus79c16.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5311942.9%51 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Daukaus80c14.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e22…19cebacked Daukaus80c13.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7513467.9%91 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2a…fe29backed Daukaus80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…d8efbacked Daukaus80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…d071backed Daukaus80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf482…d508backed Daukaus80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.