UFC · resolved market
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26135df4d4a157ad27dd796eed1744332c8828cd168bbdb0d83be502c51a5bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,705$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 60c | 506.1$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…3046backed Yes | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 33c | 359.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a6…f8aebacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 60c | 210.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Yes | 41c | 158.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 60c | 110.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked No | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 55c | 104.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…482ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Yes | 53c | 56.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 63c | 55.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 46c | 54.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed Yes | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +914%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 42c | 26.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Meerschaert vs. Daukaus (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Daukaus won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.