UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa760f58fa012a49622bfd964139556bf9532b2d1b626cb545a8e621e305ac480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed No | 61c | 188$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed No | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Yes | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Yes | 43c | 51.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked No | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…4e59backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 57c | 45.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 322: Meerschaert vs. Daukaus (Middleweight, Early Prelims)Daukaus won
- Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.