Us Politics · resolved market
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df7c923f86f4423f4e1fef435f0cf483c83f2544b57911052258258e7b303ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 2c | 11,349$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.82 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed No | 5c | 5,042$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…313bbacked No | 7c | 4,107$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 5c | 3,923$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 10c | 3,520$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed No | 3c | 3,512$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 10c | 3,460$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed No | 9c | 3,100$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 2c | 2,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,568$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 2c | 2,272$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…1ed4backed No | 3c | 1,885$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…e8e9backed No | 2c | 1,643$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ed…e878backed No | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…150abacked No | 2c | 1,414$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,349$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 3c | 1,331$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 2c | 1,261$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…90a7backed No | 12c | 1,250$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4fafbacked No | 6c | 1,001$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked No | 6c | 999.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No | 7c | 831.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 6c | 829.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed No | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed No | 4c | 690$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 5c | 637.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…42ffbacked No | 3c | 613.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 3c | 500.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…e1ddbacked No | 6c | 479.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…0b11backed No | 3c | 471.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked No | 2c | 418.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…0159backed No | 3c | 360.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed04…4302backed No | 5c | 326.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 8c | 299.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…4392backed No | 4c | 289.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…004abacked No | 9c | 274$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23f…8b10backed No | 10c | 251.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…20f7backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…7c9ebacked No | 5c | 242.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 8c | 213.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…53ffbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…5c70backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed No | 12c | 172.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…0370backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…d7e4backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 9c | 122.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…951fbacked No | 18c | 85.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…755cbacked Yes | 75c | 28.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.