NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a252999364bf62c863360f04bcd3e73f0063536df2e4f04fd976dd9669c513b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 53c | 13,159$6,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,210.35 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 10,933$5,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,138.68 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Over | 48c | 10,180$4,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,886.36 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 9,472$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,474.17 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 44c | 4,084$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.47 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 46c | 966.15$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.43 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 54c | 939.36$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.1 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 56c | 798.15$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.64 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 671.73$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.56 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 54c | 611.11$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 268$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Under | 52c | 223$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 177$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 172$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…99aebacked Over | 46c | 153.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0582…90a7backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 118.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 52c | 110.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 68.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…ff83backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5this page
- Bengals vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 48.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-6.5)Steelers won
- Steelers Team Total: O/U 37.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.