NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa95f2faf259e39b6ee1bdbc3d54b9e006dd5d20223abdbdd48a7f50aa6e37a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 2,927$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.76 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 51c | 2,283$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 2,197$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.44 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 1,562$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.62 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 668.78$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 53c | 608.01$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.76 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 51c | 590.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Over | 48c | 539.44$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 48c | 318.6$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 5c | 298.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 207.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 48.5this page
- Bengals vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineSteelers won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Bengals vs. Steelers: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-6.5)Steelers won
- Steelers Team Total: O/U 37.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.