Fed Rates · resolved market

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296f74b9101f960a5e342fd69d2b5a89b0bdb26ad6ebe6a5206845a9a0f4d9a3

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $198,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $155,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x878e…a074backed Yes	3c	42,160$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,142.56	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes	0c	20,050$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes	7c	6,902$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.02	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-65%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes	6c	3,449$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.6	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe096…c7fbbacked Yes	2c	3,001$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.01	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes	1c	2,867$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6738…13eebacked Yes	8c	2,513$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	2,500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	70	17.1%12 W · 58 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf285…52c2backed Yes	7c	2,200$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-53%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes	7c	2,039$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.75	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	1c	1,684$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…9935backed Yes	3c	1,513$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.64	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes	4c	1,364$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.64	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes	7c	1,275$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	3c	1,202$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,192$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.89	318	7.2%23 W · 295 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes	6c	1,060$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.7	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes	2c	1,033$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,019$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes	4c	741.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	654.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	641.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	8c	636$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-43%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed Yes	7c	601.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.88	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	591.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	59	1.7%1 W · 58 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	569.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	66	4.5%3 W · 63 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	5c	500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	50	16%8 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes	2c	490$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0582…90a7backed Yes	8c	434.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe316…1766backed Yes	6c	428.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.01	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	421.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa349…a150backed Yes	6c	385.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.29	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-89.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354a…8e81backed Yes	5c	344.6$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed Yes	5c	341.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-89.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf6…77d8backed Yes	5c	339.41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed Yes	6c	333.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99e2…dbc6backed Yes	7c	276.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes	4c	273.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0d…1081backed Yes	6c	247.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd049…aa90backed Yes	6c	211.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe107…eef0backed Yes	6c	193.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-84%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	192.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde1b…f15bbacked Yes	9c	181.62$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb761…253abacked Yes	8c	168.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	23cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d7a…c5efbacked Yes	9c	154.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-67%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	9c	133$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e2…6959backed Yes	9c	131.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…606ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	74c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	123	22.8%28 W · 95 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	74c	17.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.55	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?this page
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Yes won
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event