Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7971c2e02b3f1fd7bf918b3bb8bae7f71aad88734766614d2c788d4529f1973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,699 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 19,933$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,099$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 0c | 14,318$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,044$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…e040backed Yes | 0c | 10,823$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 1c | 9,371$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…dc15backed Yes | 0c | 8,768$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e5…02f0backed Yes | 0c | 7,119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 3c | 6,711$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 6,454$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…669dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,343$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,073$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,027$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 1c | 5,884$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,728$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…112fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…4bb4backed Yes | 0c | 5,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,947$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 4,224$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…4930backed Yes | 0c | 4,034$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 0c | 3,728$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…0e70backed Yes | 1c | 3,655$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…cc41backed Yes | 0c | 3,138$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c0…de2abacked Yes | 0c | 3,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,079$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f57…4139backed Yes | 1c | 3,053$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,039$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,032$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 1c | 2,919$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,781$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,662$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…3313backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed Yes | 2c | 2,412$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…a72dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,381$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 2c | 2,371$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2a52backed Yes | 2c | 2,348$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,211$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,080$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,071$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…aa90backed Yes | 2c | 2,059$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes | 2c | 2,020$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,013$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…89b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,958$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…728abacked Yes | 2c | 1,899$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…259bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,457$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,446$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…1981backed Yes | 1c | 1,409$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…96c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,358$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…3583backed Yes | 1c | 1,168$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…56f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,055$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…6f34backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9935backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…110abacked Yes | 2c | 992.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 971.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…2f24backed Yes | 2c | 967.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…abd3backed Yes | 2c | 956.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 2c | 885.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 815.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…c36abacked Yes | 2c | 815.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…9088backed Yes | 1c | 771.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…e50ebacked Yes | 2c | 695.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8a…0fc3backed Yes | 2c | 671.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 2c | 636.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 579.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…31c5backed Yes | 2c | 542.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…2b97backed Yes | 4c | 530$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0143backed Yes | 2c | 480$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa8…826bbacked Yes | 2c | 467.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed Yes | 6c | 443.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…2357backed Yes | 4c | 355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Yes won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.